Zapalenie naczyń
Rokowania, prognozy i postęp choroby
Zapalenie naczyń związane z przeciwciałami ANCA (AAV) cechuje się istotnie podwyższonym ryzykiem śmiertelności (HR=1,016 dla wieku, HR=0,982 dla eGFR, RR=2,74 dla ciężkich infekcji w pierwszym miesiącu leczenia). Kluczowymi predyktorami złego rokowania są starszy wiek, obniżona filtracja kłębuszkowa (eGFR), niskie stężenie hemoglobiny (<9,8 g/dl) oraz powikłania infekcyjne w fazie indukcji. Zajęcie nerek, zwłaszcza z progresją do niewydolności, znacząco pogarsza przeżycie, a czynniki takie jak wysoki wskaźnik aktywności choroby BVAS, białkomocz i typ histopatologiczny (postać włókniejąca) predysponują do konieczności terapii nerkozastępczej. Model prognostyczny PRESAAV, uwzględniający wiek, typ AAV (MPA, GPA, EGPA), zajęcie narządów, kreatyninę i hemoglobinę, wykazuje wyższą skuteczność predykcyjną (C=0,728) niż tradycyjne systemy (rFFS, BVAS), umożliwiając stratifikację pacjentów na grupy niskiego (5-letnie przeżycie 90,04%), umiarkowanego (70,96%) i wysokiego ryzyka (70,96%). Dodatkowo, biomarkery takie jak stosunek neutrofilów do limfocytów (NLR ≥5,9) oraz obecność przeciwciał PR3-ANCA korelują z ryzykiem nawrotów.
- Rokowanie w zapaleniu naczyń (vasculitis) – przewidywanie wyników leczenia
- Zapalenie naczyń związane z przeciwciałami ANCA (AAV)
- Niezależne czynniki predykcyjne śmiertelności w AAV
- Czynniki ryzyka dotyczące nerkowej formy AAV
- Modele predykcyjne w AAV
- Różnice w rokowaniu w zależności od typów klinicznych zapalenia naczyń
- Rokowanie w zapaleniu naczyń IgA
- Wyzwania w przewidywaniu wyników na podstawie obrazowania
- Szczególne scenariusze prognostyczne
- Podsumowanie
- Kolejne rozdziały
Rokowanie w zapaleniu naczyń (vasculitis) – przewidywanie wyników leczenia
Zapalenie naczyń (vasculitis) to heterogenna grupa chorób, których rokowanie zależy od wielu czynników, w tym typu zapalenia naczyń, zajętych narządów oraz zastosowanego leczenia. Właściwa ocena rokowania ma kluczowe znaczenie dla odpowiedniego prowadzenia pacjentów. W artykule omówiono najważniejsze czynniki i metody przewidywania wyników leczenia u pacjentów z różnymi formami zapalenia naczyń, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem zapalenia naczyń związanego z przeciwciałami przeciwko cytoplazmie neutrofilów (ANCA).12
Zapalenie naczyń związane z przeciwciałami ANCA (AAV)
Zapalenie naczyń związane z ANCA stanowi grupę chorób o podwyższonym ryzyku śmiertelności w porównaniu z populacją ogólną. Według metaanaliz, ryzyko zgonu u pacjentów z AAV jest co najmniej 2,7 razy wyższe niż w populacji ogólnej.1 W ostatnich dekadach zaobserwowano jednak poprawę rokowania – 5-letnie wskaźniki przeżycia wzrosły z 70% w latach 90. do 80% w latach 2000, prawdopodobnie dzięki wcześniejszemu rozpoznaniu i leczeniu w związku z powszechnym stosowaniem testów na przeciwciała ANCA.1
Niezależne czynniki predykcyjne śmiertelności w AAV
Wieloczynnikowe analizy wskazują kilka kluczowych parametrów, które niezależnie przewidują śmiertelność u pacjentów z AAV:12
- Wiek w momencie diagnozy (HR=1,016, 95% CI 1,016-1,105, p=0,006) – starszy wiek wiąże się z gorszym rokowaniem12
- Obniżone eGFR (HR=0,982, 95% CI 0,968-0,997, p=0,018) – gorsza funkcja nerek jest silnym predyktorem zgonu12
- Ciężkie infekcje w pierwszym miesiącu leczenia (RR=2,74, 95% CI 1,27-5,92, p=0,01) – znacząco zwiększają śmiertelność, szczególnie u pacjentów powyżej 65 roku życia1
- Poziom hemoglobiny – niskie stężenie hemoglobiny (<9,8 g/dl) wiąże się z gorszym rokowaniem krótkoterminowym12
- Powikłania infekcyjne w fazie indukcji leczenia (HR 4,72, CI 1,01-22,1, p=0,049)1
Czynniki ryzyka dotyczące nerkowej formy AAV
Zajęcie nerek stanowi istotny czynnik determinujący rokowanie w AAV, a progresja do niewydolności nerek ma kluczowe znaczenie dla długoterminowego przeżycia.21 Czynniki predykcyjne konieczności terapii nerkozastępczej (RRT) obejmują:
- Wyższy wskaźnik aktywności choroby BVAS (HR=1,290, 95% CI 1,075-1,549, p=0,006)1
- Niższe eGFR w momencie diagnozy (HR=0,782, 95% CI 0,680-0,901, p=0,001)1
- Konieczność dializoterapii w momencie diagnozy (HR 8,07, CI 1,75-37,4, p=0,008)1
- Białkomocz w momencie rozpoznania (HR 1,49, CI 1,03-2,14, p=0,034)1
- Typ histopatologiczny – szczególnie postać włókniejąca wiąże się z gorszym rokowaniem nerkowym1
Warto podkreślić, że kombinacja wskaźnika BVAS i eGFR stanowi dobry predyktor konieczności zastosowania terapii nerkozastępczej.12
Modele predykcyjne w AAV
Opracowano kilka modeli statystycznych mających na celu przewidywanie rokowania u pacjentów z AAV, w tym:
Model PRESAAV
Nowy model predykcyjny długoterminowego przeżycia pacjentów z AAV (PRESAAV) uwzględnia szereg czynników:121
- Wiek
- Typ choroby (MPA, GPA, EGPA)
- Wzorce zajęcia narządów (szczególnie płuca i serce)
- Stężenie kreatyniny we krwi
- Poziom hemoglobiny
Model PRESAAV wykazuje dobrą skuteczność w przewidywaniu wyników (skorygowany indeks C=0,728, zintegrowany wynik Briera=0,109), z poprawnymi wykresami kalibracyjnymi pokazującymi dobrą zgodność między obserwowanym a przewidywanym prawdopodobieństwem zgonu z dowolnej przyczyny.1 W porównaniu do innych systemów prognostycznych, takich jak zrewidowany system pięciu czynników (rFFS) i wskaźnik aktywności zapalenia naczyń w Birmingham (BVAS), model PRESAAV ma wyższą moc predykcyjną dla przeżycia całkowitego.1
Model definiuje trzy grupy ryzyka:1
- Niskie ryzyko (PI ≤ 2,294) – 5-letnie prawdopodobieństwo przeżycia: 90,04%
- Umiarkowane ryzyko (2,294 < PI < 3,479) – 5-letnie prawdopodobieństwo przeżycia: 70,96%
- Wysokie ryzyko (PI ≥ 3,479) – 5-letnie prawdopodobieństwo przeżycia: 70,96%
Inne biomarkery i czynniki predykcyjne
Oprócz tradycyjnych markerów, badania zidentyfikowały również inne potencjalne biomarkery prognostyczne:11
- Stosunek neutrofilów do limfocytów (NLR) ≥5,9 w momencie rozpoznania jest predyktorem nawrotu AAV, ale nie zgonu, w trakcie obserwacji1
- Komórki T w moczu – wzorce limfocytów T regulatorowych (Treg) i pomocniczych (Th17) w moczu są związane z odpowiedzią kliniczną i ryzykiem nawrotu nerkowego. Pacjenci, których biopsje nerek zostały sklasyfikowane jako „z półksiężycami” według klasyfikacji Berdena, wykazywali wyższą liczbę komórek T w moczu1
- Klasyfikacja serologiczna – przeciwciała PR3-ANCA wiążą się z wyższym wskaźnikiem nawrotów (współczynnik ryzyka dla nawrotu 2,93, 1,20-7,17, p=0,019)1
Różnice w rokowaniu w zależności od typów klinicznych zapalenia naczyń
Rokowanie różni się znacząco w zależności od typu zapalenia naczyń:11
Podtypy zapalenia naczyń związanego z ANCA
- Mikroskopowe zapalenie naczyń (MPA) – najgorsze rokowanie wśród podtypów AAV, szczególnie przy zajęciu nerek i obecności przeciwciał MPO1
- Ziarniniakowatość z zapaleniem naczyń (GPA) – wprowadzenie cyklofosfamidu doprowadziło do odpowiedzi klinicznej u 90% pacjentów1
- Eozynofilowa ziarniniakowatość z zapaleniem naczyń (EGPA) – generalnie lepsze rokowanie niż GPA i MPA1
Inne typy zapalenia naczyń
- Olbrzymiokomórkowe zapalenie tętnic (GCA) – zaobserwowano wczesny skok śmiertelności w ciągu 1-2 lat od rozpoznania. Główne przyczyny śmiertelności to choroby sercowo-naczyniowe (39%), choroby naczyniowo-mózgowe (14%), infekcje (13%), nowotwory złośliwe (13%) i powikłania żołądkowo-jelitowe (4%)1
- Zapalenie tętnic Takayasu – 10-letnie całkowite przeżycie wynosi 97%, a 15-letnie całkowite przeżycie 86%1
- Zapalenie naczyń IgA (dawniej zapalenie naczyń Henocha-Schönleina) – zazwyczaj łagodna choroba z doskonałym rokowaniem. Spontaniczne ustąpienie jest typowe: większość pacjentów doświadcza całkowitego ustąpienia objawów w ciągu 8 tygodni, a prawdopodobnie mniej niż 5% doświadcza przewlekłych objawów1
Rokowanie w zapaleniu naczyń IgA
Zapalenie naczyń IgA zasługuje na szczególną uwagę ze względu na swoją częstość i specyficzne czynniki prognostyczne:12
- Czynniki dobrego rokowania: łagodne zajęcie nerek, brak powikłań neurologicznych, choroba trwająca krócej niż 4-6 tygodni początkowego1
- Nawroty: występują u nawet 50% pacjentów w ciągu 6 tygodni, ale mogą się pojawić nawet 7 lat po początkowej chorobie1
- Ryzyko nefropatii: im wyższa liczba nawrotów, tym większe prawdopodobieństwo trwałego uszkodzenia nerek1
- Prognostyki poważnej nefropatii: krwisty stolec i utrzymująca się wysypka2
- Częstość ESKD: chociaż do 15% pacjentów może mieć długoterminową niewydolność nerek, nie więcej niż 1-2% będzie miało schyłkową niewydolność nerek (ESKD)2
Wyzwania w przewidywaniu wyników na podstawie obrazowania
Rola obrazowania w przewidywaniu wyników w zapaleniu naczyń dużych naczyń (LVV) pozostaje ograniczona:112
- Brak dowodów na to, czy nasilenie zmian w badaniach obrazowych może przewidywać gorsze wyniki kliniczne1
- Badania obrazowe generalnie nie przewidują odpowiedzi na leczenie, występowania nawrotów ani powikłań niedokrwiennych1
- Obecność wychwytu FDG w badaniu wyjściowym jest jednak powiązana z późniejszym rozwojem zmian angiograficznych (zwężenie, niedrożność lub tętniak) zarówno w GCA, jak i TAK1
- Badania nad rolą technik obrazowania do przewidywania wyników i monitorowania aktywności/uszkodzeń choroby są ograniczone i głównie opisowe1
Pilnie potrzebny jest rozwój standardowych narzędzi do monitorowania aktywności choroby i uszkodzeń w LVV, co mogłoby ułatwić dalsze badania nad rolą obrazowania w monitorowaniu choroby i przewidywaniu wyników.2
Szczególne scenariusze prognostyczne
Zapalenie naczyń w kryptokokozie
W kryptokokowym zapaleniu naczyń ośrodkowego układu nerwowego istotne czynniki prognostyczne obejmują:111
- Niskie stężenie glukozy w płynie mózgowo-rdzeniowym
- Wysokie stężenie mleczanu w płynie mózgowo-rdzeniowym
- Wysokie miano antygenu kryptokokowego w płynie mózgowo-rdzeniowym (≥1:1024)
- Początkowy poziom świadomości
- Obecność napadów padaczkowych
- Wodogłowie
- Zapalenie naczyń ośrodkowego układu nerwowego
W analizie wieloczynnikowej, kryptokokemia (OR 5,09, 95% CI 2,54-10,22; p<0,001), początkowe ciśnienie otwarcia ≥25 cm H2O (OR 2,93, 95% CI 1,25-6,88; p=0,013) i zmieniony stan psychiczny (OR 1,96, 95% CI 0,98-3,91; p=0,057) były związane ze zwiększonym ryzykiem śmiertelności.1
Podsumowanie
Różne formy zapalenia naczyń wymagają odmiennego podejścia do przewidywania rokowania. W przypadku AAV, kluczowe znaczenie mają wiek, funkcja nerek (eGFR), aktywność choroby (BVAS), zajęcie narządów oraz powikłania infekcyjne. Nowsze modele predykcyjne, takie jak PRESAAV, oferują lepszą dokładność w przewidywaniu wyników niż tradycyjne systemy. W zapaleniu naczyń dużych naczyń rola obrazowania w przewidywaniu wyników jest ograniczona, podczas gdy w zapaleniu naczyń IgA kluczowe znaczenie ma ocena zajęcia nerek i przewodu pokarmowego.212
Identyfikacja pacjentów o umiarkowanym do wysokiego prawdopodobieństwie zgonu powinna skłaniać do ścisłej obserwacji i personalizacji planu monitorowania. Dalsze badania nad biomarkerami i systemami prognostycznymi mogą przyczynić się do lepszego zarządzania ryzykiem i poprawy wyników leczenia u pacjentów z zapaleniem naczyń.11
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Materiały źródłowe
- #1 Predictors of poor prognosis in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV): a single-center prospective study of inpatients in Chinahttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10390347/
To identify potential predictors by assessing adverse outcomes in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) patients. […] We determined risk factors of high-risk events, defined as developing tumors, renal replacement therapy (RRT), and death. […] Patients with lower serum potassium tended to develop tumors (P=0.033); with higher BVAS (HR=1.290, 95%CI 1.0751.549, P=0.006) and lower eGFR (HR=0.782, 95%CI 0.6800.901, P=0.001) were more likely to undergo RRT. […] Through multivariate COX analysis, age (HR=1.016, 95%CI 1.0161.105, P=0.006) and eGFR (HR=0.982, 95%CI 0.9680.997, P=0.018) predicted death in AAV, separately. […] The BVAS and eGFR could be a great prognosticator for RRT, while age and eGFR can independently predict the death. […] A meta-analysis on the prognosis of AAV proves that the risk of death is at least 2.7 times higher compared to the general population.
- #1 Vasculitis | Diagnosis & Disease Info – Rheumatology Advisorhttps://www.rheumatologyadvisor.com/ddi/vasculitis/
Disease prognosis depends on the degree of end-organ involvement. The 5-year survival rate increased from 70% to 80% between the 1990s and 2000s, likely due to ANCA testing that led to earlier diagnosis and treatment. […] Factors that influence patient outcomes include: Age, Vasculitis damage index of at least 1, Birmingham vasculitis activity score, Serum creatinine, End-stage renal disease, First relapse within 1 year, Infection burden. […] Relapse incidence also helps determine AAV prognosis. In patients with GPA, the introduction of cyclophosphamide has led to a clinical response in 90% of patients. […] Early mortality spike within 1 to 2 years of diagnosis has been observed in patients with GCA. Main etiologies for mortality include cardiovascular diseases (39%), cerebrovascular diseases (14%), infections (13%), malignancies (13%), and gastrointestinal complications (4%). […] The 10-year overall survival for Takayasu arteritis is 97% and the 15-year overall survival is 86%.
- #1 Early predictors of one-year mortality in patients over 65 presenting with ANCA-associated renal vasculitis: a retrospective, multicentre study | BMC Nephrology | Full Texthttps://bmcnephrol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12882-018-1102-3
The risk of early death is particularly high in patients over the age of 65 presenting with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated renal vasculitis. […] The one-year mortality rate was 19.5%. […] In a multivariable analysis, the best predictors were a high FFS (relative risk (RR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]=2.57 [1.305.09]; p=0.006) and the occurrence of a severe infection during the first month (RR [95%CI]=2.74 [1.275.92]; p=0.01). […] When considering various disease severity markers in over-65 patients with ANCA-associated renal vasculitis, we found that an early, severe infection (which occurred in about a quarter of the patients) is a strong predictor of one-year mortality. […] Overall, 29 patients died during the first year of care, giving a one-year mortality rate of 19.5%.
- #1 Low levels of hemoglobin associate with critical illness and predict disease course in patients with ANCA-associated renal vasculitis | Scientific Reportshttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-23313-7
Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) is a small vessel vasculitis often leading to critical illness by multi-organ failure. […] We here identified an association between low hemoglobin levels and requirement of ICU supportive care in patients with ANCA-associated renal vasculitis. Furthermore, levels of hemoglobin below 9.8 g/dL at admission independently predicted prolonged requirement of ICU supportive care in critically ill patients with ANCA-associated renal vasculitis. […] These findings confirm that low levels of hemoglobin negatively affect short-term outcome and could further improve our current understanding for the role of anemia in ANCA-associated renal vasculitis. […] Critical illness due to renal failure was associated with increased PEX and intravenous steroid pulse treatments in this subgroup.
- #1https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10067-016-3195-z
On multivariate models, renal replacement therapy (RRT) requirement (HR 8.07, CI 1.7537.4, p=0.008) and proteinuria (HR 1.49, CI 1.032.14, p=0.034) at presentation predicted renal survival, while age (HR 1.10, CI 1.011.21, p=0.041) and infective events during the induction phase (HR 4.72, 1.0122.1, p=0.049) negatively influenced patient survival. […] At present, ANCA-based serological classification may predict AAV relapses, but neither clinical nor serological categories predict renal or patient survival. […] Age, renal function and proteinuria at presentation, histopathology, and infectious complications constitute the main outcome predictors and should be considered for individualized management.
- #1https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10067-016-3195-z
Several classification schemes have been developed for anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV), with actual debate focusing on their clinical and prognostic performance. […] Clinical presentation parameters were compared at baseline between classification groups, and the predictive value of different classification categories for disease and renal remission, relapse, renal, and patient survival was analyzed. […] Serological classification predicted relapse rate (PR3-ANCA hazard ratio for relapse 2.93, 1.207.17, p=0.019). […] There were no differences in disease or renal remission, renal, or patient survival between clinical and serological categories. […] Histopathological classification predicted response to therapy, with a poorer renal remission rate for sclerosing group and those with less than 25 % normal glomeruli; in addition, it adequately delimited 24-month glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) evolution, but it did not predict renal nor patient survival.
- #1 Development and internal validation of a model to predict long-term survival of ANCA associated vasculitishttps://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.2478/rir-2023-0005/html?lang=en
Risk stratification and prognosis prediction are critical for appropriate management of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) associated vasculitis (AAV). Herein, we aim to develop and internally validate a prediction model specifically for long-term survival of patients with AAV. […] Our model performs well in predicting outcomes of AAV patients. Patients with moderate-to-high probability of death should be followed closely and personalized monitoring plan should be scheduled. […] In this study, we developed a new model to predict long-term survival of patients with AAV (PRESAAV) and internally validate the performance of the model by the bootstrap resampling method. […] The optimism-corrected C-index and integrated Brier score of our prediction model were 0.728 and 0.109. The calibration plots showed fine agreement between observed and predicted probability of all-cause death.
- #1 Development and internal validation of a model to predict long-term survival of ANCA associated vasculitishttps://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.2478/rir-2023-0005/html?lang=en&srsltid=AfmBOoqZp75agMuwn-gbEIdqT2C_PZpKa4J8TFMJN9_eEKcS2p49uJlE
Risk stratification and prognosis prediction are critical for appropriate management of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) associated vasculitis (AAV). Herein, we aim to develop and internally validate a prediction model specifically for long-term survival of patients with AAV. […] Our model performs well in predicting outcomes of AAV patients. Patients with moderate-to-high probability of death should be followed closely and personalized monitoring plan should be scheduled. […] In this study, we developed a new model to predict long-term survival of patients with AAV (PRESAAV) and internally validate the performance of the model by the bootstrap resampling method. […] The optimism-corrected C-index and integrated Brier score of our prediction model were 0.728 and 0.109. The calibration plots showed fine agreement between observed and predicted probability of all-cause death.
- #1 AAV prognosis predicted with good accuracy using new statistical model | ANCA Vasculitis NewsEnvelope iconhttps://ancavasculitisnews.com/news/aav-prognosis-predicted-with-good-accuracy-using-new-statistical-model/
Results showed the 5-year C-index for the model was about 0.75, suggesting a fairly good predictive ability. Its C-index scores were generally higher than those of two currently used AAV prognostic systems â the revised five factor score (rFFS) and the Birmingham vasculitis activity score (BVAS) system. […] âCompared with the rFFS and the BVAS system, the current prediction model had higher predictive power for overall survival,â the researchers wrote, adding that âin a quite wide range of threshold probabilities, our prediction model had higher net benefits, implying probable better clinical values.â […] âIn addition to the factors included in the widely used rFFS system, our prediction model showed that lung involvement, hemoglobin levels, and AAV subtypesâ can help predict survival, they wrote. […] While the new model may be useful for predicting AAV prognosis, the researchers acknowledged their analysis was limited by the use of retrospective data from a single specialty center in China and that more research is needed to test whether their model performs well for a broader population.
- #1 Development and internal validation of a model to predict long-term survival of ANCA associated vasculitishttps://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.2478/rir-2023-0005/html?lang=en&srsltid=AfmBOoqZp75agMuwn-gbEIdqT2C_PZpKa4J8TFMJN9_eEKcS2p49uJlE
The three risk groups were defined as low risk (PI 2.294), moderate risk (2.294 PI 3.479) and high risk (PI 3.479), respectively. The five-year survival probability in low risk, moderate risk and high risk were 90.04%, 70.96% and 70.96% according to the Formula 1, respectively. […] The C-index of rFFS for survival prediction was 0.74 in Spanish patients with AAV implying modest discriminative ability. In our patients, the C-index of rFFS for 5-year survival prediction was 0.735, which is comparable to the Spanish patients. Meanwhile, in our prediction model, the optimism corrected C-index for 5-year survival prediction was 0.748, which indicates that the discrimination of our model is comparable to rFFS. […] We developed and internally validated a model specifically for AAV to predict long term survival of patients with this disease. In addition to the factors included in the widely used rFFS system, our prediction model showed that lung involvement, hemoglobin levels and AAV subtypes are also predictive factors for the survival of AAV patients. And the long-term survival prediction model developed in this study performs well.
- #1 Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio at diagnosis can estimate vasculitis activity and poor prognosis in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis: a retrospective study | BMC Nephrology | Full Texthttps://bmcnephrol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12882-018-0992-4
Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was introduced to predict poor prognosis in various diseases, but not all variants of ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV). In this study, we aimed to investigate whether NLR at diagnosis can estimate vasculitis activity at diagnosis and poor prognosis during follow-up in patients with AAV. […] NLR at diagnosis can estimate vasculitis activity at diagnosis and predict relapse during follow-up in patients with AAV. […] NLR5.9 at diagnosis is a predictor of relapse of AAV, but not death, during follow-up. Therefore, we believe that NLR at diagnosis is a useful marker to estimate vasculitis activity at diagnosis and poor prognosis during follow-up in AAV patients. […] We first demonstrated that NLR5.9 at diagnosis can predict relapse of AAV during follow-up. […] With these results, we suggest that physicians may calculate NLR at diagnosis to predict poor prognosis of AAV during follow-up.
- #1 Urinary T cells identify renal antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis and predict prognosis: a proof of concept study – MDC Repositoryhttps://edoc.mdc-berlin.de/id/eprint/23285/
Urinary T cells identify renal antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis and predict prognosis: a proof of concept study […] Patients whose kidney biopsies had been classified as „crescentic” according to Berden classification showed higher urinary T cell counts. […] Furthermore, urinary T(reg) and T helper cells (T(H)17) patterns were associated with clinical response and risk of renal relapse. […] Their promising potential as noninvasive diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers deserves further exploitation.
- #1 AAV prognosis predicted with good accuracy using new statistical model | ANCA Vasculitis NewsEnvelope iconhttps://ancavasculitisnews.com/news/aav-prognosis-predicted-with-good-accuracy-using-new-statistical-model/
A new statistical model that considers age, disease type, patterns of organ involvement, and lab findings may help predict long-term survival in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) better than available prognostic systems, a study suggests. […] While ârisk stratification and prognosis prediction are critical for appropriate management ofâ AAV, a model for prognosis prediction is still in need, wrote researchers in China who analyzed clinical data from 653 people with AAV treated at a single center in the country between 1999-2019 to create one. […] In the final model, the prognosis was generally poorer for those who were older, had lung and/or heart involvement, had high blood levels of creatinine, or low hemoglobin levels. It was also poorest for MPA patients, followed by those with GPA and then EGPA.
- #1 IgA Vasculitis (Henoch-Schonlein Purpura): Practice Essentials, Background, Pathophysiologyhttps://emedicine.medscape.com/article/984105-overview
IgAV is the most common vasculitis in childhood. The incidence decreases with age, but in adults the severity increases with age. […] Acute involvement of the GI tract impacts the short-term prognosis of the disease, while long-term prognosis depends on the severity of the kidney disease. Progression to chronic kidney failure may occur more than a decade after the onset of IgAV. […] IgAV is generally a benign disease with an excellent prognosis. Spontaneous resolution is usual: Most patients experience complete resolution of symptoms within 8 weeks, and probably fewer than 5% experience chronic symptoms. However, initial attacks of IgAV can last several months, and relapses are possible. […] A clinical course with complete resolution of the disease usually occurs in patients with the following: Mild kidney involvement, No neurologic complications, Disease that lasts less than 4-6 weeks initially.
- #1 IgA Vasculitis (Henoch-Schonlein Purpura): Practice Essentials, Background, Pathophysiologyhttps://emedicine.medscape.com/article/984105-overview
Recurrences occur in as many as 50% of patients within 6 weeks but can happen as late as 7 years after the initial disease. […] Although IgAV generally resolves without permanent consequences, serious GI and renal complications may occur, and the higher the number of recurrences, the higher the likelihood of permanent kidney damage. […] Kidney damage related to IgAV is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality. As many as 15% of patients may have long-term kidney insufficiency, but no more than 1-2% will have ESKD. […] Predictors of serious nephropathy or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) include bloody stools and persistent rash.
- #1 Imaging in diagnosis, monitoring and outcome prediction of large vessel vasculitis: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis informing the 2023 update of the EULAR recommendations | RMD Openhttps://rmdopen.bmj.com/content/9/3/e003379
Objectives To update the evidence on imaging for diagnosis, monitoring and outcome prediction in large vessel vasculitis (LVV) to inform the 2023 update of the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology recommendations on imaging in LVV. […] No evidence was found to determine whether imaging severity might predict worse clinical outcomes. […] Overall, imaging did not predict response to treatment, occurrence of relapses or ischaemic complications. The presence of FDG uptake at baseline, however, was linked with the subsequent development of angiographic changes (stenosis, occlusion or aneurysm) in both GCA and TAK.
- #1 Imaging in diagnosis, outcome prediction and monitoring of large vessel vasculitis: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis informing the EULAR recommendations | RMD Openhttps://rmdopen.bmj.com/content/4/1/e000612
Objectives To perform a systematic literature review on imaging techniques for diagnosis, outcome prediction and disease monitoring in large vessel vasculitis (LVV) informing the European League Against Rheumatism recommendations for imaging in LVV. […] Studies on outcome prediction and monitoring disease activity/damage were limited and mainly descriptive. […] More data on the role of imaging for diagnosis of extracranial large vessel GCA and TAK, as well as for outcome prediction and monitoring in LVV are warranted. […] Studies on the role of imaging techniques for outcome prediction and monitoring of disease activity and damage of LVV are limited and mainly non-informative because of heterogeneous study design and of being mostly descriptive, not enabling reaching an inferential conclusion.
- #1 Cryptococcosis in Non-HIV Immunocompromised Hosts: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Management | IntechOpenhttps://www.intechopen.com/online-first/1213803
In cryptococcosis, serum CrAg is now a well-accepted diagnostic biomarker for detecting or confirming cryptococcal infection; like in HIV patients with cryptococcus infection, high titers herald a poor prognosis. […] Regarding cryptococcus meningitis in non-HIV patients, over the years there have been described significant prognostic factors, including low CSF glucose, high CSF lactate, high CSF cryptococcal antigen titer ( or = 1:1024), initial level of consciousness, the presence of seizure, hydrocephalus, and central nervous system vasculitis. […] Non-HIV immunosuppressed hosts have been noted to have a poorer prognosis. […] In a retrospective study that included 302 patients diagnosed with cryptococcosis between 1996 and 2010, mortality was highest in the NHNT group (27%) vs. SOT (14%) and HIV (20%).
- #1 Cryptococcosis in Non-HIV Immunocompromised Hosts: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Management | IntechOpenhttps://www.intechopen.com/online-first/1213803
On univariate analyses, prognostic factors positively associated with 90-day mortality included cancer (P = 0.018), fever (P = 0.031), altered mental status (P = 0.001), positive blood cultures (P 0.001), and high (1:512) serum CrAg (P = 0.021). […] In multivariable logistic regression analyses, cryptococcemia [odds ratio (OR) 5.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5410.22; P 0.001], baseline opening pressure of 25 cm H2O (OR 2.93, 95% CI 1.256.88; P = 0.013), and altered mental status (OR 1.96, 95% CI 0.983.91; P = 0.057) were associated with increased odds of mortality. […] Another retrospective study included 28 confirmed cryptococcal infections between 2005 and 2017. […] The case fatality rate was highest among patients with underlying hematologic malignancies (63%), followed by SOT (50%) and HIV patients (20%).
- #1 Cryptococcosis in Non-HIV Immunocompromised Hosts: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Management | IntechOpenhttps://www.intechopen.com/online-first/1213803
A 12-year review at a tertiary care center (University of Kentucky HealthCare system) included 114 patients with cryptococcosis; 23 (20.2%) had HIV infection, 11 (9.6%) had transplants (nine patients had SOT and two had stem cell transplants), and 80 (70.2%) were NHNT patients. […] Overall, mortality was 28.1% (32/114), and relapse occurred in 10.5% (12/114) of patients. […] The mortality trend was higher (OR = 2.346, p = 0.287) in the transplant group (45.5%, 5/11) than in the HIV (26.1%, 6/23) and NHNT groups (26.3%, 21/80). […] Chronic liver disease had a large and statistically significant association with mortality on multivariate analysis (OR = 3.583, p = 0.013), which was more pronounced than the HIV or transplant groups.
- #1 A Risk Score for Predicting Short-Term Incidence of Death or Relapse in Anti-Neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis – ACR Meeting Abstractshttps://acrabstracts.org/abstract/a-risk-score-for-predicting-short-term-incidence-of-death-or-relapse-in-anti-neutrophil-cytoplasmic-antibody-associated-vasculitis/
A Risk Score for Predicting Short-Term Incidence of Death or Relapse in Anti-Neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis […] Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV), combining granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA), is associated with a substantial risk of relapse or death. […] Accurate prediction of short-term prognosis is crucial to identify patients at highest risk of an adverse event. […] We aimed to develop a risk score to predict the 1-year risk of death or relapse in newly diagnosed AAV. […] This integrative AAV-risk prediction score may be useful in predicting a patients risk of death or relapse on short-term follow-up and may contribute to better risk-stratified characterization and management of AAV. Further validation in other AAV populations is required.
- #2 Development and internal validation of a model to predict long-term survival of ANCA associated vasculitishttps://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.2478/rir-2023-0005/html?lang=en
Risk stratification and prognosis prediction are critical for appropriate management of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) associated vasculitis (AAV). Herein, we aim to develop and internally validate a prediction model specifically for long-term survival of patients with AAV. […] Our model performs well in predicting outcomes of AAV patients. Patients with moderate-to-high probability of death should be followed closely and personalized monitoring plan should be scheduled. […] In this study, we developed a new model to predict long-term survival of patients with AAV (PRESAAV) and internally validate the performance of the model by the bootstrap resampling method. […] The optimism-corrected C-index and integrated Brier score of our prediction model were 0.728 and 0.109. The calibration plots showed fine agreement between observed and predicted probability of all-cause death.
- #2 Predictors of poor prognosis in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV): a single-center prospective study of inpatients in Chinahttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10390347/
Some prove CVD, malignancy, and renal death can be risk factors for premature death from AAV. […] Other have suggested that renal function, disease activity state and age are important predictors of prognosis in AAV. […] The important thing about this study is that only age at diagnosis and eGFR level independently predict death in AAV patients. […] The leading causes of death include vasculitis activity and infection, as well as cardiovascular events. Therefore, early screening of cardio and renal function in AAV patients should be performed to improve prognosis. […] In conclusion, most MPA patients with MPO positive are associated with renal damage at diagnosis, and the long-term prognosis remains poor. Decreased eGFR and C3 levels may be predictors of poor prognosis in AAV. The combination of BVAS and eGFR is a great prognosticator for RRT outcome. Age at diagnosis and eGFR can independently predict the death.
- #2 Early predictors of one-year mortality in patients over 65 presenting with ANCA-associated renal vasculitis: a retrospective, multicentre study | BMC Nephrology | Full Texthttps://bmcnephrol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12882-018-1102-3
In a univariate analysis, age, the CCI, a performance status of 3 or 4, a lack of CTZ prophylaxis, and disease activity parameters (such as albuminaemia, haemoglobin level, peak SCr level, and dialysis status) were significantly associated with one-year mortality. […] Our present results highlighted the impact of early infections on mortality. […] This finding should be taken into account during the initial steps in patient management. A reduction in immunosuppression, the early detection of infections, and systematic CTZ prophylaxis might help to reduce mortality in this population.
- #2 Low levels of hemoglobin associate with critical illness and predict disease course in patients with ANCA-associated renal vasculitis | Scientific Reportshttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-23313-7
Our observation that low levels of hemoglobin at admission correlated with prolonged requirement of ICU supportive care in this subgroup confirms that severe anemia also affects short-term disease course in critically ill patients with biopsy-proven ANCA-associated renal vasculitis. […] Our finding that low levels of hemoglobin independently predict short-term disease course in critically ill patients with biopsy-proven ANCA-associated renal vasculitis is of relevance.
- #2 Development and internal validation of a model to predict long-term survival of ANCA associated vasculitishttps://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.2478/rir-2023-0005/html?lang=en
The long-term survival of patients with AAV has been improving in the past several decades. […] In the present retrospective cohort study, we developed and internally validated a new prognostic model to predict the probability of long-term survival in patients with AAV. […] The C-index, the integrated Brier score and the calibration plots demonstrated that our prediction model performed well. […] Different from the rFFS, which only classified patients as low-, medium- and high-risk of death at the fifth year, our prediction model could obtain individual prediction of the probability of five-year survival via the Formula or the Nomogram. […] The limitations of this study include the following aspects. […] We developed and internally validated a model specifically for AAV to predict long term survival of patients with this disease. In addition to the factors included in the widely used rFFS system, our prediction model showed that lung involvement, hemoglobin levels and AAV subtypes are also predictive factors for the survival of AAV patients. And the long-term survival prediction model developed in this study performs well.
- #2 IgA Vasculitis (Henoch-Schonlein Purpura): Practice Essentials, Background, Pathophysiologyhttps://emedicine.medscape.com/article/984105-overview
Recurrences occur in as many as 50% of patients within 6 weeks but can happen as late as 7 years after the initial disease. […] Although IgAV generally resolves without permanent consequences, serious GI and renal complications may occur, and the higher the number of recurrences, the higher the likelihood of permanent kidney damage. […] Kidney damage related to IgAV is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality. As many as 15% of patients may have long-term kidney insufficiency, but no more than 1-2% will have ESKD. […] Predictors of serious nephropathy or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) include bloody stools and persistent rash.
- #2 Imaging in diagnosis, outcome prediction and monitoring of large vessel vasculitis: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis informing the EULAR recommendations | RMD Openhttps://rmdopen.bmj.com/content/4/1/e000612
Current evidence on the role for imaging modalities for outcome prediction, as well as for monitoring disease activity and damage in LVV is limited. […] The development of standard tools for monitoring disease activity and damage in LVV is urgently needed and might facilitate further research on the evaluation of the role of imaging for disease monitoring and outcome prediction.