Rak odbytnicy
Rokowania, prognozy i postęp choroby

Rokowanie w raku odbytnicy jest determinowane przez szereg czynników klinicznych, patologicznych i molekularnych. Kluczowe znaczenie ma stopień zaawansowania TNM, z 5-letnimi względnymi wskaźnikami przeżycia wynoszącymi 90% dla raka miejscowego, 74% dla regionalnego i 18% dla przerzutowego (SEER). Istotne są także: stopień zróżnicowania guza (niski zróżnicowanie zwiększa ryzyko zgonu, HR=2,98), zajęcie węzłów chłonnych (stadium III, HR=1,78), obecność inwazji żylnej pozaściennej (EMVI, HR=2,46), owrzodzenie guza, wiek ≥70 lat (HR=4,66), stan odżywienia (BMI ≥18,5 jest czynnikiem ochronnym, HR=0,37), płeć męska oraz spożywanie alkoholu. Poziom CEA, status MSI oraz mutacje KRAS i BRAF również wpływają na prognozę. Wznowa miejscowa występuje u 4-16% pacjentów w stadium I, a zastosowanie radioterapii poprawia przeżycie wolne od choroby (DFS do 57%). Przerzuty odległe rozwijają się u 30-60% chorych, najczęściej w wątrobie i płucach, a EMVI zwiększa ryzyko przerzutów do 25% w ciągu roku (RR=3,70).

Rak odbytnicy – Rokowanie (prognoza wyników leczenia)

Rokowanie w raku odbytnicy zależy od wielu czynników, obejmujących zarówno cechy samego nowotworu, jak i charakterystykę pacjenta oraz zastosowane metody leczenia. Szacowanie prawdopodobieństwa przeżycia oraz ryzyka wznowy miejscowej stanowi kluczowy element opieki nad pacjentem z rakiem odbytnicy i pozwala na odpowiednie planowanie leczenia i monitorowania.12

Wskaźniki przeżycia w raku odbytnicy

Dane dotyczące przeżywalności w raku odbytnicy są szacowane na podstawie obserwacji dużych grup pacjentów. Według bazy SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results), 5-letnie względne wskaźniki przeżycia dla raka odbytnicy wynoszą:3
– 90% dla raka miejscowego (zlokalizowanego)
– 74% dla raka regionalnego (z zajęciem regionalnych węzłów chłonnych)
– 18% dla raka z przerzutami odległymi
– 67% dla wszystkich stadiów łącznie

Mediana całkowitego przeżycia (OS) pacjentów z rakiem odbytnicy w niektórych badaniach wynosi około 9,04 lat (przedział ufności 95%: 7-NA), co potwierdza stosunkowo dobre wyniki leczenia w przypadku wczesnego wykrycia nowotworu.4 Dla pacjentów z rakiem odbytnicy w I stadium (T1/2 N0) poddanych wyłącznie resekcji, wskaźnik 5-letniej śmiertelności wynosi od 16% do 23%, niezależnie od zastosowanego podejścia chirurgicznego.5

Czynniki wpływające na rokowanie w raku odbytnicy

Liczne badania wykazały, że następujące czynniki istotnie wpływają na rokowanie u pacjentów z rakiem odbytnicy:678

Czynniki związane z guzem
  • Stopień zaawansowania nowotworu – najważniejszy czynnik prognostyczny; niższy stopień zaawansowania w momencie diagnozy wiąże się z lepszym rokowaniem
  • Stopień zróżnicowania guza – guzy nisko zróżnicowane są niezależnym czynnikiem ryzyka zgonu (HR=2,98, 95% CI: 1,52-5,72, p=0,001)
  • Zajęcie węzłów chłonnych – stadium III (z zajęciem węzłów) jest niezależnym czynnikiem ryzyka zgonu (HR=1,78, 95% CI: 1,17-2,70, p=0,007)
  • Inwazja żylna pozaścienna (EMVI) – obecność nacieku nowotworowego w żyłach poza ścianą odbytnicy, wykryta w badaniu MRI, jest niezależnym czynnikiem złego rokowania (zmniejszenie przeżycia wolnego od choroby, współczynnik ryzyka: 2,46)
  • Owrzodzenie guza – jest niezależnym czynnikiem zwiększającym ryzyko wznowy miejscowej

910111213

Czynniki związane z pacjentem
  • Wiek – pacjenci powyżej 65-70 roku życia mają gorsze rokowanie; wiek ≥70 lat jest najważniejszym niezależnym czynnikiem prognostycznym zgonu (HR=4,66, 95% CI: 3,04-7,14, p<0,001)
  • Stan odżywienia – prawidłowy stan odżywienia (BMI ≥18,5) jest niezależnym czynnikiem ochronnym (HR=0,37, 95% CI: 0,16-0,85, p=0,02)
  • Płeć męska – związana z wyższym ryzykiem wznowy miejscowej
  • Spożywanie alkoholu – aktualne spożywanie alkoholu zwiększa ryzyko wznowy miejscowej

141516

Markery biologiczne i stany zapalne
  • Poziom CEA – niższy poziom CEA przed zabiegiem wiąże się z lepszym rokowaniem
  • Stan zapalny i odżywienia – wskaźniki takie jak CONUT score, PNI (Prognostic Nutritional Index) i mGPS (modified Glasgow Prognostic Score) są niezależnymi czynnikami prognostycznymi dla całkowitego przeżycia, nawet w IV stadium raka jelita grubego
  • Status MSI (niestabilność mikrosatelitarna) – guzy z wysoką MSI mają lepsze rokowanie niż guzy z niską MSI
  • Mutacje genów KRAS i BRAF – ich obecność wiąże się z gorszym rokowaniem

171819

Różnice w rokowaniu między rakiem odbytnicy a okrężnicy

Badania porównujące przeżycie pacjentów z rakiem okrężnicy i odbytnicy wskazują na pewne różnice. Współczynniki przeżycia dla wznowy choroby, śmiertelności bez wznowy i śmiertelności po wznowie są wyższe we wczesnym stadium raka okrężnicy w porównaniu do wczesnego stadium raka odbytnicy (TR=1,712, 95% CI 1,489-2,197 dla wznowy).20 Zaobserwowano również, że pacjenci z zaawansowanym rakiem odbytnicy mają krótsze czasy przeżycia do wznowy choroby niż pacjenci z wczesnym stadium raka okrężnicy.21

Wznowa miejscowa w raku odbytnicy

Wznowa miejscowa jest istotnym problemem w leczeniu raka odbytnicy. W przypadku pacjentów z rakiem odbytnicy w stadium I (T1/2 N0) poddanych wyłącznie resekcji, wskaźnik wznowy miejscowej wynosi od 4% do 16% w ciągu 5 lat. W jednym z badań spośród 137 pacjentów z kompletnymi danymi obserwacyjnymi, u 23 (16,8%) wystąpiła wznowa miejscowa, a mediana czasu do wznowy wynosiła 1,1 roku (zakres 0,1-7,8 lat).22

Zastosowanie radioterapii w leczeniu raka odbytnicy zmniejsza ryzyko wznowy miejscowej, poprawiając szansę pacjentów na dłuższe przeżycie wolne od choroby (DFS). W niektórych badaniach wskaźnik 5-letniego DFS wynosił 57%.23

Przerzuty odległe w raku odbytnicy

Rozwój przerzutów odległych po radykalnym leczeniu raka odbytnicy obserwuje się u 30-60% pacjentów, przy czym najczęstszymi lokalizacjami są wątroba i płuca. Pojawienie się przerzutów odległych jest głównym niekorzystnym czynnikiem prognostycznym u pacjentów z nowotworami złośliwymi.24

U pacjentów z rakiem odbytnicy i inwazją żylną pozaścienną (EMVI) wykrytą w badaniu MRI, ryzyko powstania przerzutów w wątrobie i płucach w ciągu roku wynosiło około 25%, w porównaniu do około 7% u pacjentów bez EMVI (ryzyko względne: 3,70).25

Nowoczesne narzędzia do prognozowania w raku odbytnicy

W celu poprawy dokładności prognozowania wyników leczenia raka odbytnicy opracowano zaawansowane narzędzia, takie jak nomogramy, które uwzględniają wiele czynników prognostycznych. Przykładem jest kalkulator kliniczny opracowany przez Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, który przewiduje prawdopodobieństwo przeżycia wolnego od raka odbytnicy oraz prawdopodobieństwo przeżycia co najmniej pięciu lat po terapii wielomodalnej (łączącej chemioterapię, radioterapię i chirurgię).26

Opracowano również nowy parametr oceny – Overall Treatment Outcome (OTO), który jest użytecznym narzędziem do definiowania wyników leczenia skojarzonego raka. Pozwala on na kompleksową ocenę skuteczności leczenia, biorąc pod uwagę zarówno przeżycie całkowite, przeżycie wolne od choroby, jak i obecność wznowy.27

Wpływ metod leczenia na rokowanie

Stosowanie terapii skojarzonej (chirurgia, chemioterapia i radioterapia) pozwala na optymalizację wyników leczenia raka odbytnicy. W jednym z badań 64% pacjentów przeżyło 5 lat (OS), przy czym wskaźnik dla pacjentów, którzy przeszli radioterapię przedoperacyjną, wynosił 65%.28

Nie zaobserwowano istotnej statystycznie różnicy w wynikach między radioterapią przedoperacyjną a pooperacyjną, z medianą OS wynoszącą odpowiednio 9,1 lat (CI95%: 9-NA) vs. 6,7 lat (CI95%: 4,2-NA), p=0,065.29

Obecność inwazji żylnej pozaściennej (EMVI) w preparatach pooperacyjnych po terapii neoadjuwantowej wiąże się ze znacznie gorszym rokowaniem u pacjentów z rakiem odbytnicy. EMVI wykryta w badaniu MRI po chemioterapii neoadjuwantowej jest również predyktorem zmniejszonego przeżycia wolnego od choroby (HR: 1,97-2,68), przeżycia wolnego od wznowy (HR: 2,74) i przeżycia całkowitego (HR: 1,98-4,23).3031

Podsumowanie czynników rokowniczych

Najważniejszymi niezależnymi czynnikami prognostycznymi w raku odbytnicy są:323334

  • Stopień zaawansowania TNM w momencie rozpoznania
  • Wiek pacjenta (≥65-70 lat jako czynnik negatywny)
  • Stopień zróżnicowania guza (niski stopień zróżnicowania jako czynnik negatywny)
  • Zajęcie węzłów chłonnych
  • Inwazja żylna pozaścienna (EMVI)
  • Stan odżywienia pacjenta
  • Margines chirurgiczny (radykalność zabiegu)
  • Markery molekularne (MSI, KRAS, BRAF)

Zrozumienie tych czynników prognostycznych ma kluczowe znaczenie dla personalizacji leczenia raka odbytnicy i optymalizacji wyników terapii. Wieloczynnikowe modele prognostyczne, takie jak nomogramy, mogą dostarczyć dokładniejszych szacunków przeżycia dla poszczególnych pacjentów, umożliwiając lepsze planowanie leczenia i monitorowanie.35

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  1. 15.04.2026
  2. www.leksykon.com.pl

Materiały źródłowe

  • #1 Colorectal Cancer Nomograms: Disease-Free Probability and Overall Survival After Treatment for Rectal Cancer | Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
    https://www.mskcc.org/nomograms/colorectal/rectal
    This clinical calculator is a tool designed to predict the likelihood of surviving free of rectal cancer five years after undergoing multimodal therapy (treatment that combines chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery) to remove cancerous tissue. This tool also predicts the likelihood of surviving at least five years after undergoing multimodal therapy for rectal cancer. It is appropriate for patients whose rectal cancer has shown no evidence of distant metastasis or spread to other organs beyond the rectum or regional lymph nodes before multimodal therapy or at the time of multimodal therapy. […] Probability of remaining free of rectal cancer at five years after multimodal therapy […] Probability of surviving at least five years after multimodal therapy for rectal cancer.
  • #2 Overall treatment outcome – analysis of long-term results of rectal cancer treatment on the basis of a new parameter
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7286345/
    Outcomes of rectal cancer treatment depend on preoperative staging and the effectiveness of treatments. […] According to disease staging, different variants of combined therapy (surgery, chemo- and radiotherapy) are used. […] Available parameters such as overall survival rates and disease-free survival rates as well as the presence of recurrence are inaccurate and should be jointly considered. […] In using a combined therapy, it is possible to optimise rectal cancer treatment outcomes. […] The OTO parameter is a useful tool for defining these results of cancer combination treatment. […] Patient prognosis deteriorates with cancer staging. […] Relative 5-year survival in patients with locoregional disease (circa 37% of patients) and dissemination (c. 20%) amounts to c. 70% and 12%, respectively.
  • #3 Colorectal Cancer Survival Rates | Colorectal Cancer Prognosis | American Cancer Society
    https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/colon-rectal-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/survival-rates.html
    Survival rates can give you an idea of what percentage of people with the same type and stage of cancer are still alive a certain amount of time (usually 5 years) after they were diagnosed. […] Keep in mind that survival rates are estimates and are often based on previous outcomes of large numbers of people who had a specific cancer, but they cant predict what will happen in any particular persons case. […] A relative survival rate compares people with the same type and stage of cancer to people in the overall population. […] The SEER database tracks 5-year relative survival rates for colon and rectal cancer in the United States, based on how far the cancer has spread. […] 5-year relative survival rates for rectal cancer: Localized 90%, Regional 74%, Distant 18%, All SEER stages combined 67%. […] These numbers apply only to the stage of the cancer when it is first diagnosed. […] People now being diagnosed with colon or rectal cancer may have a better outlook than these numbers show.
  • #4 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    The median OS was 9.04 years (CI 95%: 7-NA). […] As for radiotherapy characteristics, pre-operative or post-operative radiation setting was not correlated with significantly different outcome, with median OS of 9.1 years (CI95%: 9-NA) vs. 6.7 years (CI95%: 4.2-NA), p=0.065, respectively. […] The univariate analysis provided potential (p0.2) OS predictive factors, reported in Table 4. […] Regarding patients characteristics, age (70 years old) was an independent risk factors of death (HR=3.54 CI 95% (2.285.48), p0.001) and a correct nutritional condition (BMI18.5) was an independent protective factor of death (HR=0.37 CI 95% (0.160.85), p=0.02). […] Regarding tumor characteristics, stage III and poorly differentiated tumors were independent risk factors of death, with HR=1.78 CI 95% (1.172.70), p=0.007 and HR=2.98 CI 95% (1.525.72), p=0.001 respectively.
  • #5 Early stage rectal cancer: clinical and pathologic prognostic markers of time to local recurrence and overall survival after resection
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3954982/
    For patients with stage I rectal cancer treated with resection alone, these results provide important prognostic information and may help identify those who could benefit from additional therapy. […] A 5-year mortality of 16 to 23% has been consistently reported for patients with stage I rectal cancer, regardless of surgical approach. […] Male gender, current alcohol consumption, and tumor ulceration were independent predictors of LR. Additionally, age greater than 65 at diagnosis and T2 pathologic stage were independently associated with decreased survival. […] T2 pathologic stage was an independent prognostic factor for reduced survival in our patients. […] Age at diagnosis was also an independent predictor of increased mortality after resection.
  • #6 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    This retrospective study was undertaken to provide more modern data of real-life management of non-metastatic rectal cancer, to compare therapeutic strategies, and to identify prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in a large cohort of patients. […] OS was correlated with patient, tumor and treatment characteristics with univariate and multivariate analyses. […] In the whole set of patients, age, nutritional condition, tumor stage, tumor differentiation, and surgery independently influenced OS. […] Poor tumor differentiation and node involvement were identified as major predictive factor of poor OS. […] The identification of prognosis factors of overall survival (OS) was retrospectively performed in the whole set of patients, and in the subset of patients undergoing rectal tumor resection.
  • #7 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    The median OS was 9.04 years (CI 95%: 7-NA). […] As for radiotherapy characteristics, pre-operative or post-operative radiation setting was not correlated with significantly different outcome, with median OS of 9.1 years (CI95%: 9-NA) vs. 6.7 years (CI95%: 4.2-NA), p=0.065, respectively. […] The univariate analysis provided potential (p0.2) OS predictive factors, reported in Table 4. […] Regarding patients characteristics, age (70 years old) was an independent risk factors of death (HR=3.54 CI 95% (2.285.48), p0.001) and a correct nutritional condition (BMI18.5) was an independent protective factor of death (HR=0.37 CI 95% (0.160.85), p=0.02). […] Regarding tumor characteristics, stage III and poorly differentiated tumors were independent risk factors of death, with HR=1.78 CI 95% (1.172.70), p=0.007 and HR=2.98 CI 95% (1.525.72), p=0.001 respectively.
  • #8 Prognosis and survival for colorectal cancer | Canadian Cancer Society
    https://cancer.ca/en/cancer-information/cancer-types/colorectal/prognosis-and-survival
    If you have colorectal cancer, you may have questions about your prognosis. A prognosis is the doctors best estimate of how cancer will affect someone and how it will respond to treatment. Prognosis and survival depend on many factors. Only a doctor familiar with your medical history, the type and stage and other features of the cancer, the treatments chosen and the response to treatment can put all of this information together with survival statistics to arrive at a prognosis. […] Stage is the most important prognostic factor for colorectal cancer. The lower the stage at diagnosis, the better the outcome. Tumours that are only in the colon or rectum have a better prognosis than those that have grown through the wall of the colon or rectum, or have spread to other organs (called distant metastases).
  • #9 MRI-detected extramural venous invasion of rectal cancer: Multimodality performance and implications at baseline imaging and after neoadjuvant therapy | Insights into Imaging | Full Text
    https://insightsimaging.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13244-021-01023-4
    MRI is routinely used for rectal cancer staging to evaluate tumor extent and to inform decision-making regarding surgical planning and the need for neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy. […] Extramural venous invasion (EMVI), which is intravenous tumor extension beyond the rectal wall on histopathology, is a predictor for worse prognosis. […] Direct tumor invasion into the extramural veins on histopathology, known as extramural venous invasion (EMVI), has been recognized as an indicator of poor prognosis. […] MRI-detected EMVI is now widely accepted as an independent poor prognostic factor for disease-free survival. […] Consequently, MRI-detected EMVI is an important consideration in therapeutic decision-making similar to histopathological EMVI. […] The presence of EMVI on resection specimens following neoadjuvant therapy is associated with a significantly worse prognosis in patients with rectal cancer.
  • #10 MRI-detected extramural venous invasion of rectal cancer: Multimodality performance and implications at baseline imaging and after neoadjuvant therapy | Insights into Imaging | Full Text
    https://insightsimaging.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13244-021-01023-4
    MRI-detected EMVI is reported to be an independent significant prognostic factor for overall disease-free survival and systemic recurrence in rectal cancer. […] In locally advanced rectal cancer, MRI-detected EMVI predicted decreased disease-free survival (hazard ratio: 2.46). […] MRI-detected EMVI after neoadjuvant chemotherapy has also been shown to be a predictor of decreased disease-free survival (hazard ratio: 1.97-2.68), recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio: 2.74) and overall survival (hazard ratio: 1.98-4.23). […] Approximately 25% of rectal cancer patients with EMVI on MRI developed subsequent liver and lung metastases at 1-year, compared to about 7% of patients without EMVI (Relative risk: 3.70). […] MRI-detected EMVI correlates closely with histopathological EMVI and is a predictor of lymph node and distant metastases, tumor recurrence, and poor prognosis.
  • #11 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    The median OS was 9.04 years (CI 95%: 7-NA). […] As for radiotherapy characteristics, pre-operative or post-operative radiation setting was not correlated with significantly different outcome, with median OS of 9.1 years (CI95%: 9-NA) vs. 6.7 years (CI95%: 4.2-NA), p=0.065, respectively. […] The univariate analysis provided potential (p0.2) OS predictive factors, reported in Table 4. […] Regarding patients characteristics, age (70 years old) was an independent risk factors of death (HR=3.54 CI 95% (2.285.48), p0.001) and a correct nutritional condition (BMI18.5) was an independent protective factor of death (HR=0.37 CI 95% (0.160.85), p=0.02). […] Regarding tumor characteristics, stage III and poorly differentiated tumors were independent risk factors of death, with HR=1.78 CI 95% (1.172.70), p=0.007 and HR=2.98 CI 95% (1.525.72), p=0.001 respectively.
  • #12 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    The most important independent predictive factor of death was the age with HR=4.66 CI 95% (3.047.14), p0.001 for patients 70 years. […] The present retrospective study identified independent predictive factor of overall survival in one of the largest cohort of real-world RC patients in literature. […] Poor tumor differentiation and node involvement were identified as major predictive factor of poor OS.
  • #13 Early stage rectal cancer: clinical and pathologic prognostic markers of time to local recurrence and overall survival after resection
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3954982/
    Resection without adjuvant therapy results in a low recurrence rate for patients with stage I (T1/2 N0) rectal cancer, in the range of 4% to 16% at 5 years. […] To assess clinical and pathologic factors associated with local recurrence and overall survival in patients with early stage rectal cancer after resection. […] Of the eligible cohort, 137 patients had complete follow up data for analysis of time to local recurrence, and 23 (16.8%) recurred locally. Among these 23 patients, the median time to recurrence was 1.1 years (0.1-7.8). On multivariate analysis, male gender, current alcohol use, and tumor ulceration were associated with heightened risk of local recurrence. […] Among these patients, the median overall survival was 12 years. On multivariable analysis, age at diagnosis 65 years and T2 pathologic stage were associated with decreased survival.
  • #14 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    The median OS was 9.04 years (CI 95%: 7-NA). […] As for radiotherapy characteristics, pre-operative or post-operative radiation setting was not correlated with significantly different outcome, with median OS of 9.1 years (CI95%: 9-NA) vs. 6.7 years (CI95%: 4.2-NA), p=0.065, respectively. […] The univariate analysis provided potential (p0.2) OS predictive factors, reported in Table 4. […] Regarding patients characteristics, age (70 years old) was an independent risk factors of death (HR=3.54 CI 95% (2.285.48), p0.001) and a correct nutritional condition (BMI18.5) was an independent protective factor of death (HR=0.37 CI 95% (0.160.85), p=0.02). […] Regarding tumor characteristics, stage III and poorly differentiated tumors were independent risk factors of death, with HR=1.78 CI 95% (1.172.70), p=0.007 and HR=2.98 CI 95% (1.525.72), p=0.001 respectively.
  • #15 Early stage rectal cancer: clinical and pathologic prognostic markers of time to local recurrence and overall survival after resection
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3954982/
    Resection without adjuvant therapy results in a low recurrence rate for patients with stage I (T1/2 N0) rectal cancer, in the range of 4% to 16% at 5 years. […] To assess clinical and pathologic factors associated with local recurrence and overall survival in patients with early stage rectal cancer after resection. […] Of the eligible cohort, 137 patients had complete follow up data for analysis of time to local recurrence, and 23 (16.8%) recurred locally. Among these 23 patients, the median time to recurrence was 1.1 years (0.1-7.8). On multivariate analysis, male gender, current alcohol use, and tumor ulceration were associated with heightened risk of local recurrence. […] Among these patients, the median overall survival was 12 years. On multivariable analysis, age at diagnosis 65 years and T2 pathologic stage were associated with decreased survival.
  • #16 Exploring the impact of stage and tumor site on colorectal cancer survival: Bayesian survival modeling | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54943-8
    The findings indicated a recurrence rate of 46.1% and a mortality rate of 42.6%. […] The log-rank test demonstrated a statistically significant association between age at diagnosis and survival (P-value0.001), indicating that patients over the age of 70 exhibited lower survival rates. […] The Bayesian AFT Log-Normal model outcomes further highlighted the significance of age, the number of chemotherapy sessions, and tumor size in influencing survival rates and durations across different scenarios. […] When comparing well-differentiated tumors to those with moderate differentiation, tumors with moderate differentiation displayed a higher time ratio for recurrence (TR=1.965; 95% CI 1.3382.349) and death without recurrence (TR=2.612; 95% CI 1.8213.648). […] The results highlight the significant influence of both stage and tumor sites on survival outcomes. Specifically, patients with early-stage colon cancer exhibited higher rates of survival for disease recurrence, mortality without recurrence, and mortality after recurrence compared to patients in other stages.
  • #17 Nutritional and inflammatory measures predict survival of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer | BMC Cancer | Full Text
    https://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12885-020-07560-3
    This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of nutritional and inflammatory measures (controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS)) on overall survival (OS) in patients with stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). […] After adjusting for known factors (age, gender, BMI, ECOG performance status, location of primary tumor, CEA levels, histological type, M category, and prior surgical treatment), all three measures were found to be independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with stage (CONUT score, p0.001; PNI, p0.001; mGPS, p0.001). […] CONUT score, PNI, and mGPS were found to be independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with stage IV CRC, suggesting that nutritional and inflammatory status is a useful host-related prognostic indicator in stage IV CRC.
  • #18 Nutritional and inflammatory measures predict survival of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer | BMC Cancer | Full Text
    https://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12885-020-07560-3
    In the present study, we focused on stage IV CRC including curative resected stage IV CRC and unresectable metastatic CRC, and demonstrated that CONUT score, PNI, and mGPS are independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with stage IV CRC regardless of curative potential. […] These results suggest that nutritional and inflammatory measures may be a useful prognostic indicator regardless of treatment strategies. […] The present study revealed that CONUT score, PNI, and mGPS, which consist of these factors, are strongly correlated with prognosis in stage IV CRC patients. […] CONUT score, PNI, and mGPS were all independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with stage IV CRC, suggesting that nutritional and inflammatory status is a useful host-related prognostic indicator in stage IV CRC.
  • #19 Prognosis and survival for colorectal cancer | Canadian Cancer Society
    https://cancer.ca/en/cancer-information/cancer-types/colorectal/prognosis-and-survival
    The prognosis is better if there are no cancer cells in the tissue removed with the tumour than if there are cancer cells in the tissue (called positive surgical margins). […] Tumours that dont have lymphovascular invasion have a better prognosis than tumours that have lymphovascular invasion. […] The lower the CEA level before surgery, the better the prognosis. […] People who have a bowel obstruction or perforation at the time of diagnosis have a poorer prognosis. […] High-grade cancers have a poorer prognosis than low-grade cancers. […] Mucinous adenocarcinoma, signet ring cell carcinoma and small cell carcinoma have a poorer prognosis than other types of colorectal tumours. […] Tumours that have cells with high MSI have a better prognosis than tumours with low MSI (called microsatellite stable or MSS tumours). […] People with colorectal cancer cells that have the KRAS gene mutation have a poorer prognosis because targeted therapy drugs will not work on the tumour. […] As a result, people with cancer cells that have the BRAF gene mutation have a poorer prognosis.
  • #20 Exploring the impact of stage and tumor site on colorectal cancer survival: Bayesian survival modeling | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54943-8
    Colorectal cancer is a prevalent malignancy with global significance. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the influence of stage and tumor site on survival outcomes in 284 colorectal cancer patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2017. […] Results demonstrated significantly higher time ratios for disease recurrence (TR=1.712, 95% CI 1.4892.197), mortality without recurrence (TR=1.933, 1.4802.510), and mortality after recurrence (TR=1.847, 1.1472.178) in early-stage colon cancer compared to early-stage rectal cancer. Furthermore, patients with advanced-stage rectal cancer exhibited shorter survival times for disease recurrence than patients with early-stage colon cancer. […] The prognosis of CRC patients exhibits substantial variability, with 5-year survival rates ranging from 90 to 10%, contingent upon the stage of the disease and other pertinent factors.
  • #21 Exploring the impact of stage and tumor site on colorectal cancer survival: Bayesian survival modeling | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54943-8
    Colorectal cancer is a prevalent malignancy with global significance. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the influence of stage and tumor site on survival outcomes in 284 colorectal cancer patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2017. […] Results demonstrated significantly higher time ratios for disease recurrence (TR=1.712, 95% CI 1.4892.197), mortality without recurrence (TR=1.933, 1.4802.510), and mortality after recurrence (TR=1.847, 1.1472.178) in early-stage colon cancer compared to early-stage rectal cancer. Furthermore, patients with advanced-stage rectal cancer exhibited shorter survival times for disease recurrence than patients with early-stage colon cancer. […] The prognosis of CRC patients exhibits substantial variability, with 5-year survival rates ranging from 90 to 10%, contingent upon the stage of the disease and other pertinent factors.
  • #22 Early stage rectal cancer: clinical and pathologic prognostic markers of time to local recurrence and overall survival after resection
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3954982/
    Resection without adjuvant therapy results in a low recurrence rate for patients with stage I (T1/2 N0) rectal cancer, in the range of 4% to 16% at 5 years. […] To assess clinical and pathologic factors associated with local recurrence and overall survival in patients with early stage rectal cancer after resection. […] Of the eligible cohort, 137 patients had complete follow up data for analysis of time to local recurrence, and 23 (16.8%) recurred locally. Among these 23 patients, the median time to recurrence was 1.1 years (0.1-7.8). On multivariate analysis, male gender, current alcohol use, and tumor ulceration were associated with heightened risk of local recurrence. […] Among these patients, the median overall survival was 12 years. On multivariable analysis, age at diagnosis 65 years and T2 pathologic stage were associated with decreased survival.
  • #23 Overall treatment outcome – analysis of long-term results of rectal cancer treatment on the basis of a new parameter
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7286345/
    The use of radiotherapy in rectal cancer treatment reduces the risk of LR improving patients chance for longer DFS. […] In our study, we found a 57% rate for 5-year DFS. […] Our analysis of patients data showed a statistically significant correlation between the presence and number of metastases relative to regional lymph nodes and treatment outcomes (OTO).
  • #24 Overall treatment outcome – analysis of long-term results of rectal cancer treatment on the basis of a new parameter
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7286345/
    The assessment and comparison of treatment results is a basic problem which all researchers face in attempting to define the patients chances of survival. […] The greatest impact on the successful treatment of patients with malignant neoplasms is the avoidance of cancer recurrence in the form of LR and DM. […] Recurrence is the major factor affecting long-term survival of patients following the radical treatment of malignant neoplasms. […] The emergence of DM is the major adverse prognostic factor in patients with malignancies. […] The development of DM following radical treatment of rectal cancer is observed in 30-60% of patients, with the most common locations being the liver and lungs. […] In our study, 64% of patients survived 5 years (OS), with the rate for patient who underwent sRT being 65%.
  • #25 MRI-detected extramural venous invasion of rectal cancer: Multimodality performance and implications at baseline imaging and after neoadjuvant therapy | Insights into Imaging | Full Text
    https://insightsimaging.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13244-021-01023-4
    MRI-detected EMVI is reported to be an independent significant prognostic factor for overall disease-free survival and systemic recurrence in rectal cancer. […] In locally advanced rectal cancer, MRI-detected EMVI predicted decreased disease-free survival (hazard ratio: 2.46). […] MRI-detected EMVI after neoadjuvant chemotherapy has also been shown to be a predictor of decreased disease-free survival (hazard ratio: 1.97-2.68), recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio: 2.74) and overall survival (hazard ratio: 1.98-4.23). […] Approximately 25% of rectal cancer patients with EMVI on MRI developed subsequent liver and lung metastases at 1-year, compared to about 7% of patients without EMVI (Relative risk: 3.70). […] MRI-detected EMVI correlates closely with histopathological EMVI and is a predictor of lymph node and distant metastases, tumor recurrence, and poor prognosis.
  • #26 Colorectal Cancer Nomograms: Disease-Free Probability and Overall Survival After Treatment for Rectal Cancer | Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
    https://www.mskcc.org/nomograms/colorectal/rectal
    This clinical calculator is a tool designed to predict the likelihood of surviving free of rectal cancer five years after undergoing multimodal therapy (treatment that combines chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery) to remove cancerous tissue. This tool also predicts the likelihood of surviving at least five years after undergoing multimodal therapy for rectal cancer. It is appropriate for patients whose rectal cancer has shown no evidence of distant metastasis or spread to other organs beyond the rectum or regional lymph nodes before multimodal therapy or at the time of multimodal therapy. […] Probability of remaining free of rectal cancer at five years after multimodal therapy […] Probability of surviving at least five years after multimodal therapy for rectal cancer.
  • #27 Overall treatment outcome – analysis of long-term results of rectal cancer treatment on the basis of a new parameter
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7286345/
    Outcomes of rectal cancer treatment depend on preoperative staging and the effectiveness of treatments. […] According to disease staging, different variants of combined therapy (surgery, chemo- and radiotherapy) are used. […] Available parameters such as overall survival rates and disease-free survival rates as well as the presence of recurrence are inaccurate and should be jointly considered. […] In using a combined therapy, it is possible to optimise rectal cancer treatment outcomes. […] The OTO parameter is a useful tool for defining these results of cancer combination treatment. […] Patient prognosis deteriorates with cancer staging. […] Relative 5-year survival in patients with locoregional disease (circa 37% of patients) and dissemination (c. 20%) amounts to c. 70% and 12%, respectively.
  • #28 Overall treatment outcome – analysis of long-term results of rectal cancer treatment on the basis of a new parameter
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7286345/
    The assessment and comparison of treatment results is a basic problem which all researchers face in attempting to define the patients chances of survival. […] The greatest impact on the successful treatment of patients with malignant neoplasms is the avoidance of cancer recurrence in the form of LR and DM. […] Recurrence is the major factor affecting long-term survival of patients following the radical treatment of malignant neoplasms. […] The emergence of DM is the major adverse prognostic factor in patients with malignancies. […] The development of DM following radical treatment of rectal cancer is observed in 30-60% of patients, with the most common locations being the liver and lungs. […] In our study, 64% of patients survived 5 years (OS), with the rate for patient who underwent sRT being 65%.
  • #29 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    The median OS was 9.04 years (CI 95%: 7-NA). […] As for radiotherapy characteristics, pre-operative or post-operative radiation setting was not correlated with significantly different outcome, with median OS of 9.1 years (CI95%: 9-NA) vs. 6.7 years (CI95%: 4.2-NA), p=0.065, respectively. […] The univariate analysis provided potential (p0.2) OS predictive factors, reported in Table 4. […] Regarding patients characteristics, age (70 years old) was an independent risk factors of death (HR=3.54 CI 95% (2.285.48), p0.001) and a correct nutritional condition (BMI18.5) was an independent protective factor of death (HR=0.37 CI 95% (0.160.85), p=0.02). […] Regarding tumor characteristics, stage III and poorly differentiated tumors were independent risk factors of death, with HR=1.78 CI 95% (1.172.70), p=0.007 and HR=2.98 CI 95% (1.525.72), p=0.001 respectively.
  • #30 MRI-detected extramural venous invasion of rectal cancer: Multimodality performance and implications at baseline imaging and after neoadjuvant therapy | Insights into Imaging | Full Text
    https://insightsimaging.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13244-021-01023-4
    MRI is routinely used for rectal cancer staging to evaluate tumor extent and to inform decision-making regarding surgical planning and the need for neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy. […] Extramural venous invasion (EMVI), which is intravenous tumor extension beyond the rectal wall on histopathology, is a predictor for worse prognosis. […] Direct tumor invasion into the extramural veins on histopathology, known as extramural venous invasion (EMVI), has been recognized as an indicator of poor prognosis. […] MRI-detected EMVI is now widely accepted as an independent poor prognostic factor for disease-free survival. […] Consequently, MRI-detected EMVI is an important consideration in therapeutic decision-making similar to histopathological EMVI. […] The presence of EMVI on resection specimens following neoadjuvant therapy is associated with a significantly worse prognosis in patients with rectal cancer.
  • #31 MRI-detected extramural venous invasion of rectal cancer: Multimodality performance and implications at baseline imaging and after neoadjuvant therapy | Insights into Imaging | Full Text
    https://insightsimaging.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13244-021-01023-4
    MRI-detected EMVI is reported to be an independent significant prognostic factor for overall disease-free survival and systemic recurrence in rectal cancer. […] In locally advanced rectal cancer, MRI-detected EMVI predicted decreased disease-free survival (hazard ratio: 2.46). […] MRI-detected EMVI after neoadjuvant chemotherapy has also been shown to be a predictor of decreased disease-free survival (hazard ratio: 1.97-2.68), recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio: 2.74) and overall survival (hazard ratio: 1.98-4.23). […] Approximately 25% of rectal cancer patients with EMVI on MRI developed subsequent liver and lung metastases at 1-year, compared to about 7% of patients without EMVI (Relative risk: 3.70). […] MRI-detected EMVI correlates closely with histopathological EMVI and is a predictor of lymph node and distant metastases, tumor recurrence, and poor prognosis.
  • #32 Outcome and prognostic factors in 593 non-metastatic rectal cancer patients: a mono-institutional survey | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29040-2
    The most important independent predictive factor of death was the age with HR=4.66 CI 95% (3.047.14), p0.001 for patients 70 years. […] The present retrospective study identified independent predictive factor of overall survival in one of the largest cohort of real-world RC patients in literature. […] Poor tumor differentiation and node involvement were identified as major predictive factor of poor OS.
  • #33 Prognosis and survival for colorectal cancer | Canadian Cancer Society
    https://cancer.ca/en/cancer-information/cancer-types/colorectal/prognosis-and-survival
    If you have colorectal cancer, you may have questions about your prognosis. A prognosis is the doctors best estimate of how cancer will affect someone and how it will respond to treatment. Prognosis and survival depend on many factors. Only a doctor familiar with your medical history, the type and stage and other features of the cancer, the treatments chosen and the response to treatment can put all of this information together with survival statistics to arrive at a prognosis. […] Stage is the most important prognostic factor for colorectal cancer. The lower the stage at diagnosis, the better the outcome. Tumours that are only in the colon or rectum have a better prognosis than those that have grown through the wall of the colon or rectum, or have spread to other organs (called distant metastases).
  • #34 Prognosis and survival for colorectal cancer | Canadian Cancer Society
    https://cancer.ca/en/cancer-information/cancer-types/colorectal/prognosis-and-survival
    The prognosis is better if there are no cancer cells in the tissue removed with the tumour than if there are cancer cells in the tissue (called positive surgical margins). […] Tumours that dont have lymphovascular invasion have a better prognosis than tumours that have lymphovascular invasion. […] The lower the CEA level before surgery, the better the prognosis. […] People who have a bowel obstruction or perforation at the time of diagnosis have a poorer prognosis. […] High-grade cancers have a poorer prognosis than low-grade cancers. […] Mucinous adenocarcinoma, signet ring cell carcinoma and small cell carcinoma have a poorer prognosis than other types of colorectal tumours. […] Tumours that have cells with high MSI have a better prognosis than tumours with low MSI (called microsatellite stable or MSS tumours). […] People with colorectal cancer cells that have the KRAS gene mutation have a poorer prognosis because targeted therapy drugs will not work on the tumour. […] As a result, people with cancer cells that have the BRAF gene mutation have a poorer prognosis.
  • #35
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00384-023-04543-1
    To predict cancer-specific survival, a refined nomogram model and brand-new risk-stratifying system were established to classify the risk levels of patients with early-onset locally advanced colon cancer (LACC). […] Early-onset colon cancers had poorer prognosis (T4, N2, TNM stage III, CEA, tumor deposit, and nerve invasion), and a higher proportion received radiotherapy and systemic therapy (P0.001). […] In the survival analysis, cancer-specific survival (CSS) was better in patients with early-onset LACC than in those with late-onset LACC (P 0.001). […] This nomogram constructed based on the results of COX analysis showed better accuracy in CSS prediction of early-onset LACC patients than AJCC-TNM system in the training set and external validation set (0.783 vs 0.728; 0.852 vs 0.773). […] We developed a novel nomogram model to predict CSS in patients with early-onset LACC it provided a reference in prognosis prediction and selection of individualized treatment, helping clinicians in decision-making.