Materiały źródłowe

• #1 Varicella-Zoster Virus (Chickenpox) – StatPearls – NCBI Bookshelf

  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK448191/

  The prognosis is excellent in healthy children. However, the infection has high morbidity in immunocompromised individuals. While the majority of varicella infections provide lifelong protection, instances of clinical reinfection have been reported in healthy children. […] Chickenpox is usually acquired after inhalation of aerosolized droplets from an infected individual. Most cases occur in children younger than 10. For most children who develop chickenpox, the outcome is excellent. However, in immunocompromised individuals, there is increased morbidity and mortality.

• #2 Chickenpox (varicella) – symptoms, treatment, vaccine | healthdirect

  https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/chickenpox

  Chickenpox is a very contagious infection caused by the varicella zoster virus. […] Most people with chickenpox have mild symptoms and get better quickly. In rare cases, the virus can cause serious complications such as pneumonia and meningitis. […] Severe symptoms may be a sign of complications that need medical treatment. […] Complications linked to chickenpox are rare, but can be serious. They may include bacterial infection of skin blisters, scarring, pneumonia, and meningitis or encephalitis. […] If you have been diagnosed with chickenpox and are concerned about complications, speak with your doctor.

• #3 Chickenpox – Wikipedia

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chickenpox

  The duration of the visible blistering caused by varicella zoster virus varies in children usually from four to seven days, and the appearance of new blisters begins to subside after the fifth day. Chickenpox infection is milder in young children, and symptomatic treatment, with sodium bicarbonate baths or antihistamine medication may ease itching. […] In adults, the disease is more severe, though the incidence is much less common. Infection in adults is associated with greater morbidity and mortality due to pneumonia (either direct viral pneumonia or secondary bacterial pneumonia), bronchitis (either viral bronchitis or secondary bacterial bronchitis), hepatitis, and encephalitis. […] In particular, up to 10% of pregnant women with chickenpox develop pneumonia, the severity of which increases with onset later in gestation.

• #4 Chickenpox – Infections – Merck Manual Consumer Version

  https://www.merckmanuals.com/home/infections/herpesvirus-infections/chickenpox

  Healthy children nearly always recover from chickenpox without problems. […] In adults, chickenpox is more severe, and the risk of dying is higher. […] Chickenpox is particularly severe in people with a weakened immune system. […] When people who have been vaccinated develop chickenpox, the disease is less severe, and fewer of these people die.

• #5 Chickenpox – Wikipedia

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chickenpox

  Varicella can be lethal to individuals with impaired immunity. The number of people in this high-risk group has increased, due to the HIV epidemic and the increased use of immunosuppressive therapies. […] Secondary bacterial infection of skin lesions, manifesting as impetigo, cellulitis, and erysipelas, is the most common complication in healthy children. […] Ninety percent of cases of varicella pneumonia occur in the adult population. Rarer complications of disseminated chickenpox include myocarditis, hepatitis, and glomerulonephritis. […] Hemorrhagic complications are more common in the immunocompromised or immunosuppressed populations, although healthy children and adults have been affected. Five major clinical syndromes have been described: febrile purpura, malignant chickenpox with purpura, postinfectious purpura, purpura fulminans, and anaphylactoid purpura. These syndromes have variable courses, with febrile purpura being the most benign of the syndromes and having an uncomplicated outcome. In contrast, malignant chickenpox with purpura is a grave clinical condition that has a mortality rate of greater than 70%. The cause of these hemorrhagic chickenpox syndromes is not known.

• #6 Chickenpox: Background, Pathophysiology, Etiology

  https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/1131785-overview

  Chickenpox typically presents as a mild illness in children. However, severe or life-threatening cases are more likely to occur in the following groups: Adults, Individuals with compromised T-cell immunity, such as those with lymphoreticular cancers, Patients undergoing treatment with corticosteroids, chemotherapy, or other immunosuppressive therapies, Patients receiving tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists.

• #7 Epidemiological analysis of varicella in Dalian from 2009 to 2019 and application of three kinds of model in prediction prevalence of varicella | BMC Public Health | Full Text

  https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-022-12898-3

  This study described the epidemic characteristics of varicella in Dalian from 2009 to 2019, explored the fitting effect of Grey model first-order one variable( GM(1,1)), Markov model, and GM(1,1)-Markov model on varicella data, and found the best fitting method for this type of data, to better predict the incidence trend. […] The GM(1,1) model prediction result of 2019 would be 53.64, the relative error would be 14.42%, the Markov prediction result would be 56.21, the relative error would be 10.33%, and the Gray(1,1)-Markov prediction result would be 59.51. The relative error would be 5.06%. […] The accuracy of GM (1,1)Markov model is higher than GM(1.1) model and Markov model. The model can be used for prediction and decision guidance. […] The GM (1,1), Markov model, and Gray-Markov were used to predict the prevalence of varicella in 2019. The predicted values were: 53.64, 56.21, and 59.51, and the relative errors of the true value in 2019 were: 14.42,10.33, and 5.06.

• #8 Epidemiological analysis of varicella in Dalian from 2009 to 2019 and application of three kinds of model in prediction prevalence of varicella | BMC Public Health | Full Text

  https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-022-12898-3

  The Grey-Markov prediction result was better than the Grey model and Markov model prediction alone. The Gray model was widely used in predicting small sample data. It could describe the overall trend well, but it could not reflect data fluctuations well. The Markov model had a good predictive effect on fluctuating data. However, the data was less and the state was insufficient, which easily led to poor prediction results. […] GM(1,1)-Markov forecast achieved a relatively good forecast result with the small sample, volatility, and overall risen data. In further studies, GM(1,1)-Markov model can be used in similar medical data to predict disease development and formulate reasonable medical health measures.

Zobacz więcej