Demencja naczyniowa
Rokowania, prognozy i postęp choroby
Demencja naczyniowa jest chorobą neurodegeneracyjną o niekorzystnym rokowaniu, z medianą przeżycia wynoszącą około 3,06 roku (95% CI 3,14-3,60) i średnią długością życia poniżej 5 lat (4,4 roku u kobiet, 3,9 roku u mężczyzn). Choroba charakteryzuje się postępującym pogorszeniem funkcji poznawczych spowodowanym zaburzeniami przepływu mózgowego, często w wyniku drobnych udarów. Czynniki zwiększające ryzyko śmiertelności to m.in. starszy wiek (aHR=1,02), diagnoza demencji mieszanej (aHR=3,45), wyższy wskaźnik współchorobowości Charlsona (aHR=1,19), podwyższony poziom kreatyniny (aHR=1,35), intubacja dotchawicza (aHR=1,95) oraz ponowna hospitalizacja w ciągu 30 dni (aHR=1,88). Pacjenci z demencją naczyniową mają wyższe ryzyko zgonu z powodu chorób sercowo-naczyniowych, takich jak udar czy zawał serca, niż z powodu samej demencji.
- Prognoza demencji naczyniowej
- Średnie przeżycie po rozpoznaniu demencji naczyniowej
- Czynniki wpływające na rokowanie
- Porównanie z innymi typami demencji
- Genetyczne i poligenetyczne czynniki prognostyczne
- Biomarkery prognostyczne
- Modele predykcyjne i ich skuteczność
- Ryzyko upadków jako czynnik prognostyczny
- Progresja demencji naczyniowej
- Porównanie z chorobami sercowo-naczyniowymi
- Perspektywy dla opieki klinicznej
- Kolejne rozdziały
Prognoza demencji naczyniowej
Demencja naczyniowa jest chorobą postępującą, która obecnie nie ma dostępnego leczenia przyczynowego. Charakteryzuje się ona gorszym rokowaniem niż choroba Alzheimera, co wynika z jej patofizjologii związanej z zaburzeniami przepływu krwi w mózgu, często w formie serii drobnych udarów, prowadzących do stopniowego pogorszenia funkcji poznawczych.123
Średnie przeżycie po rozpoznaniu demencji naczyniowej
Według danych badawczych, średnia długość życia po rozpoznaniu demencji naczyniowej wynosi mniej niż 5 lat. Opublikowane prace naukowe wskazują na zakres oczekiwanej długości życia od 3 do 5 lat, co czyni ją istotnie krótszą niż w przypadku innych typów demencji.456
Dane dotyczące średniej długości życia w zależności od płci wskazują na:7
- 4,4 roku dla kobiet
- 3,9 roku dla mężczyzn
W badaniu obejmującym starszych dorosłych z demencją, mediana czasu przeżycia wynosiła 3,06 roku (95% CI 3,14-3,60), co potwierdza wcześniejsze obserwacje.8
Czynniki wpływające na rokowanie
Rokowanie w demencji naczyniowej jest wysoce zmienne i zależy od wielu czynników indywidualnych. Analiza wieloczynnikowa wykazała, że następujące czynniki są istotnie związane ze zwiększonym ryzykiem śmiertelności:910
- Starszy wiek (aHR=1,02, 95% CI 1,00-1,05)
- Diagnoza demencji mieszanej (aHR=3,45, 95% CI 1,17-10,14)
- Wyższy wynik w skali współchorobowości Charlsona (aHR=1,19, 95% CI 1,04-1,36)
- Wyższy poziom kreatyniny w surowicy (aHR=1,35, 95% CI 1,10-1,66)
- Intubacja dotchawicza (aHR=1,95, 95% CI 1,07-3,54)
- Ponowna hospitalizacja w ciągu 30 dni (aHR=1,88, 95% CI 1,18-2,98)
Badania wskazują również, że pacjenci, którzy doświadczyli szybszej śmiertelności, byli nieznacznie starsi w momencie diagnozy, mieli niższe wyniki w skali MMSE, więcej objawów depresyjnych oraz wyższą częstość występowania czynników ryzyka sercowo-naczyniowego.11
Porównanie z innymi typami demencji
W porównaniu z innymi typami demencji, demencja naczyniowa charakteryzuje się stosunkowo gorszym rokowaniem:1213
| Typ demencji | Średnie oczekiwane przeżycie | Uwagi |
|---|---|---|
| Demencja naczyniowa | Około 5 lat | Wyższe ryzyko zgonu z powodu udaru lub zawału |
| Choroba Alzheimera | Mediana nie osiągnięta w badaniu | 5-letnie i 7-letnie wskaźniki przeżycia: 76,05% i 66,63% |
| Otępienie z ciałami Lewy’ego | 98,3 miesiąca (95% CI 84,2-119,5) | 5-letnie i 7-letnie wskaźniki przeżycia: 60,0% i 52,0% |
Warto zauważyć, że osoby z demencją naczyniową są bardziej narażone na śmierć na każdym etapie choroby w wyniku chorób sercowo-naczyniowych, w tym udaru mózgu czy zawału serca, niż z powodu samej demencji.14
Genetyczne i poligenetyczne czynniki prognostyczne
Badania z wykorzystaniem poligenetycznego wskaźnika ryzyka (PRS) oraz statusu APOE wykazały, że czynniki genetyczne mogą odgrywać rolę w prognozowaniu demencji naczyniowej:1516
- PRS i status APOE4 były istotnie predykcyjne dla demencji naczyniowej, choć związek ten był silniejszy dla choroby Alzheimera
- Uczestnicy będący zarówno PRS+ jak i APOE4+ wykazywali 4,6-krotnie większe szanse na diagnozę choroby Alzheimera w ciągu 17 lat
- Dodanie PRS do podstawowego modelu uwzględniającego wiek, płeć i wykształcenie znacząco poprawiło przewidywanie choroby Alzheimera
Biomarkery prognostyczne
Badania wykorzystujące techniki uczenia maszynowego zidentyfikowały potencjalne biomarkery predykcyjne dla progresji kognitywnej w demencji naczyniowej. Najlepiej rokujący model (Random Forest) wskazał następujące parametry jako najbardziej predykcyjne:17
- Wynik MMSE przy włączeniu do badania
- Poziom kwasu foliowego
- Średnia objętość krwinki (MCV)
- Parathormon (PTH)
- Kreatynina
- Witamina B12
- Hormon tyreotropowy (TSH)
- Hemoglobina
Modele predykcyjne i ich skuteczność
Współczesne badania wykorzystują zaawansowane modele uczenia maszynowego do przewidywania śmiertelności w różnych typach demencji, w tym demencji naczyniowej:181920
- Modele osiągają obszar pod krzywą ROC (AUC-ROC) powyżej 0,82 dla wszystkich progów 1-, 3-, 5- i 10-letnich przy wykorzystaniu zaledwie dziewięciu oszczędnych cech
- Modele dwucechowe wykorzystujące wiek i globalny wynik CDR osiągnęły AUC-ROC powyżej 0,76 dla wszystkich czterech progów przeżycia
- Modele specyficzne dla typu demencji osiągnęły AUC-ROC powyżej 0,79 w przewidywaniu śmiertelności pacjentów z demencją przy 5-letnim progu przeżycia
Inna analiza z wykorzystaniem Indeksu Współchorobowości Charlsona (CCI) wykazała jednak ograniczoną wartość predykcyjną w populacji tajskich pacjentów z demencją:21
- Model oparty na CCI wykazał umiarkowaną zdolność dyskryminacyjną i słabą kalibrację
- Pomimo prób aktualizacji modelu, nie osiągnięto znaczących ulepszeń
- Wskazuje to na potrzebę uwzględnienia innych istotnych czynników prognostycznych
Ryzyko upadków jako czynnik prognostyczny
Upadki stanowią istotny czynnik wpływający na chorobowość i śmiertelność u pacjentów z demencją naczyniową. Badania prospektywne wykazały:2223
- Częstość upadków w demencji wynosiła 9118 na 1000 osobolat, co było znacznie wyższe niż w grupie kontrolnej (1023; współczynnik gęstości zapadalności (IDR) skorygowany o wiek i płeć: 7,58, 95% CI: 3,11-18,5)
- Istotne predyktory upadków obejmowały:
- Diagnozę zaburzenia z ciałami Lewy’ego
- Historię upadków w poprzednich 12 miesiącach
- Stosowanie leków kardiaktywnych
- Nieprawidłowy chód lub wynik równowagi
- Wynik w skali depresji Cornell ≥10
- Objawy autonomiczne
- Objawowe niedociśnienie ortostatyczne
Progresja demencji naczyniowej
Demencja naczyniowa zwykle pogarsza się z czasem, choć niekiedy możliwe jest spowolnienie jej progresji. Charakterystyczny przebieg obejmuje nagłe pogorszenie w krokach, z okresami pomiędzy, w których objawy nie zmieniają się znacząco, jednak trudno jest przewidzieć, kiedy to nastąpi.24
Późny etap demencji naczyniowej jest zwykle najkrótszy, trwając średnio od jednego do dwóch lat. W tym czasie osoby z demencją wymagają wysokiego poziomu opieki ze względu na utratę zdolności umysłowych oraz pogorszenie sprawności fizycznej.2526
Porównanie z chorobami sercowo-naczyniowymi
Badania wskazują, że demencja naczyniowa wiąże się z wyższym ryzykiem śmiertelności niż powszechnie się uważa:27282930
- Jednoroczne ryzyko śmiertelności było trzy do czterech razy wyższe u pacjentów odwiedzających klinikę dzienną w porównaniu z populacją ogólną
- Ryzyko śmiertelności wśród pacjentów hospitalizowanych z demencją przewyższało nawet to obserwowane u pacjentów hospitalizowanych z chorobami sercowo-naczyniowymi
Perspektywy dla opieki klinicznej
W miarę postępu demencji naczyniowej, osoba chora będzie ostatecznie wymagała wysokiego poziomu opieki z powodu utraty zdolności umysłowych oraz pogorszenia funkcji fizycznych. Placówki opieki długoterminowej specjalizujące się w opiece nad pacjentami z demencją są często konieczne, gdy osoba dotknięta demencją naczyniową nie może być już objęta opieką domową.31
Badania wskazują, że około jedna trzecia pozostałej długości życia osób z demencją jest spędzana w domach opieki, przy czym ponad połowa osób przenosi się do domu opieki w ciągu pięciu lat po diagnozie demencji.32
Interwencje ukierunkowane na modyfikowalne czynniki ryzyka mogą potencjalnie zmniejszyć obciążenie związane z upadkami i innymi powikłaniami w demencji naczyniowej. Zalecane strategie obejmują:3334
- Leczenie objawowego niedociśnienia ortostatycznego
- Zarządzanie objawami autonomicznymi
- Leczenie depresji
- Zachęcanie do aktywności fizycznej
Choć nie ma leczenia odwracającego demencję naczyniową, odpowiednie postępowanie może pomóc spowolnić jej progresję i potencjalnie wydłużyć oczekiwaną długość życia. Dokładne informacje prognostyczne zależne od indywidualnych cech pacjenta mogą umożliwić personalizowane planowanie opieki.3536
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Materiały źródłowe
- #1 Long-term Prognosis for Vascular Dementia | Stanford Health Carehttps://stanfordhealthcare.org/medical-conditions/brain-and-nerves/vascular-dementia/long-term-prognosis.html
Vascular dementia is a progressive disease that has no cure. A person with vascular dementia will eventually need a high level of care as a result of the loss of mental abilities, as well as a decline in physical abilities. […] Long-term care facilities that specialize in the care of patients with dementias, Alzheimer’s disease, and other related conditions are often available once a person affected by vascular dementia can no longer be cared for at home.
- #2 Vascular Dementia – StatPearls – NCBI Bookshelfhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK430817/
Vascular dementia appears to have a poorer prognosis than Alzheimer disease. […] In one study of MND patients, those who experienced rapid mortality were slightly older at diagnosis, with lower MMSE scores and more depressive symptoms, plus a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, all of which had P values less than 0.05. […] Among those with rapid mortality, vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease occurred more frequently than Alzheimer disease. […] For vascular dementia, published papers note a life expectancy range of 3 to 5 years.
- #3https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10916-023-01906-7
Vascular dementia (VaD) is a subtype of dementia caused by problems with the brain’s blood flow, generally in the form of a series of minor strokes, which results in a slow decline of cognitive capacity. […] A stroke increases the risk of dementia by 70%, whereas a recent stroke increases the risk by almost 120%. […] Risk factors for VaD include age, hypertension, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and cerebrovascular sickness; geographic origin, genetic proclivity, and past strokes are also risk factors. […] The diagnostic performance of the classification models was evaluated using quantitative parameters derived from the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). […] The aim of this SLR is to analyse and evaluate the performance of automated diagnostic systems for dementia prediction using different data modalities.
- #4 Vascular Dementia Life Expectancy: Statistics and Disease Progressionhttps://resources.healthgrades.com/right-care/dementia/vascular-dementia-prognosis-and-life-expectancy
According to research, the average life expectancy for people with vascular dementia is less than 5 years from the time of diagnosis. However, everyone is different, and the disease may progress more slowly or quickly for some people. […] The average life expectancy after a vascular dementia diagnosis is: 4.4 years for females, 3.9 years for males. […] The bottom line is that the progression of vascular dementia is highly variable. It depends on personal factors, such as overall health and existing underlying conditions. This can make determining any one personâs expected progression or life expectancy difficult. […] There is no way to reverse vascular dementia. However, treatment may help slow its progression and increase life expectancy. […] The average life expectancy for people diagnosed with vascular dementia is usually less than 5 years. However, everyone is different. Some people may live longer while others may live for a shorter time.
- #5 Vascular Dementia – StatPearls – NCBI Bookshelfhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK430817/
Vascular dementia appears to have a poorer prognosis than Alzheimer disease. […] In one study of MND patients, those who experienced rapid mortality were slightly older at diagnosis, with lower MMSE scores and more depressive symptoms, plus a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, all of which had P values less than 0.05. […] Among those with rapid mortality, vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease occurred more frequently than Alzheimer disease. […] For vascular dementia, published papers note a life expectancy range of 3 to 5 years.
- #6 The later stage of dementia | Alzheimer’s Societyhttps://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/symptoms-and-diagnosis/how-dementia-progresses/later-stages-dementia
Dementia is a life-limiting condition and there is information about later-stage dementia and life expectancy on this page. […] Whatever type of dementia a person has, their life expectancy is on average lower. This is why dementia is called a life-limiting condition. […] The later stage of dementia tends to be the shortest. On average it lasts about one to two years. […] A person with vascular dementia is at risk of dying at any stage of dementia, from one of these. […] The other way that dementia reduces life expectancy is through the effects of severe disease. […] This is why the later stage of dementia is often the shortest. […] The average life expectancy figures for the most common types of dementia are as follows: Vascular dementia around five years. This is lower than the average for Alzheimers mostly because someone with vascular dementia is more likely to die from a stroke or heart attack than from the dementia itself.
- #7 Vascular Dementia Life Expectancy: Statistics and Disease Progressionhttps://resources.healthgrades.com/right-care/dementia/vascular-dementia-prognosis-and-life-expectancy
According to research, the average life expectancy for people with vascular dementia is less than 5 years from the time of diagnosis. However, everyone is different, and the disease may progress more slowly or quickly for some people. […] The average life expectancy after a vascular dementia diagnosis is: 4.4 years for females, 3.9 years for males. […] The bottom line is that the progression of vascular dementia is highly variable. It depends on personal factors, such as overall health and existing underlying conditions. This can make determining any one personâs expected progression or life expectancy difficult. […] There is no way to reverse vascular dementia. However, treatment may help slow its progression and increase life expectancy. […] The average life expectancy for people diagnosed with vascular dementia is usually less than 5 years. However, everyone is different. Some people may live longer while others may live for a shorter time.
- #8 Survival analysis of older adults with dementia: predicting factors after unplanned hospitalization in Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai Hospital | BMC Geriatrics | Full Texthttps://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12877-023-04558-x
The median survival time of the studied cohort was 3.06 years (95% CI 3.14-3.60). […] The multivariable analysis revealed that older age (aHR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.05), a diagnosis of mixed-type dementia (aHR=3.45, 95% CI 1.17-10.14), higher Charlson comorbidity index score (aHR=1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36), higher serum creatinine level (aHR=1.35, 95% CI 1.10-1.66), insertion of endotracheal tube (aHR=1.95, 95% CI 1.07-3.54), and readmission within 30 days (aHR=1.88, 95% CI 1.18-2.98) were associated with an increased risk of mortality. […] The median overall survival after hospitalization was approximately three years. Older age, higher comorbidity, a higher serum creatinine level, insertion of endotracheal tube, and readmission within 30 days were significantly related to higher mortality.
- #9 Survival analysis of older adults with dementia: predicting factors after unplanned hospitalization in Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai Hospital | BMC Geriatrics | Full Texthttps://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12877-023-04558-x
The median survival time of the studied cohort was 3.06 years (95% CI 3.14-3.60). […] The multivariable analysis revealed that older age (aHR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.05), a diagnosis of mixed-type dementia (aHR=3.45, 95% CI 1.17-10.14), higher Charlson comorbidity index score (aHR=1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36), higher serum creatinine level (aHR=1.35, 95% CI 1.10-1.66), insertion of endotracheal tube (aHR=1.95, 95% CI 1.07-3.54), and readmission within 30 days (aHR=1.88, 95% CI 1.18-2.98) were associated with an increased risk of mortality. […] The median overall survival after hospitalization was approximately three years. Older age, higher comorbidity, a higher serum creatinine level, insertion of endotracheal tube, and readmission within 30 days were significantly related to higher mortality.
- #10 Survival analysis of older adults with dementia: predicting factors after unplanned hospitalization in Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai Hospital | BMC Geriatrics | Full Texthttps://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12877-023-04558-x
Our study identified several notable predictors of mortality, including older age, higher comorbidity, a higher serum creatinine level, insertion of endotracheal tube, and readmission within 30 days. These findings emphasize the urgent need for more effective and personalized management strategies in the hospital setting for these vulnerable patients.
- #11 Vascular Dementia – StatPearls – NCBI Bookshelfhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK430817/
Vascular dementia appears to have a poorer prognosis than Alzheimer disease. […] In one study of MND patients, those who experienced rapid mortality were slightly older at diagnosis, with lower MMSE scores and more depressive symptoms, plus a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, all of which had P values less than 0.05. […] Among those with rapid mortality, vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease occurred more frequently than Alzheimer disease. […] For vascular dementia, published papers note a life expectancy range of 3 to 5 years.
- #12 Vascular Dementia – StatPearls – NCBI Bookshelfhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK430817/
Vascular dementia appears to have a poorer prognosis than Alzheimer disease. […] In one study of MND patients, those who experienced rapid mortality were slightly older at diagnosis, with lower MMSE scores and more depressive symptoms, plus a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, all of which had P values less than 0.05. […] Among those with rapid mortality, vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease occurred more frequently than Alzheimer disease. […] For vascular dementia, published papers note a life expectancy range of 3 to 5 years.
- #13 The later stage of dementia | Alzheimer’s Societyhttps://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/symptoms-and-diagnosis/how-dementia-progresses/later-stages-dementia
Dementia is a life-limiting condition and there is information about later-stage dementia and life expectancy on this page. […] Whatever type of dementia a person has, their life expectancy is on average lower. This is why dementia is called a life-limiting condition. […] The later stage of dementia tends to be the shortest. On average it lasts about one to two years. […] A person with vascular dementia is at risk of dying at any stage of dementia, from one of these. […] The other way that dementia reduces life expectancy is through the effects of severe disease. […] This is why the later stage of dementia is often the shortest. […] The average life expectancy figures for the most common types of dementia are as follows: Vascular dementia around five years. This is lower than the average for Alzheimers mostly because someone with vascular dementia is more likely to die from a stroke or heart attack than from the dementia itself.
- #14 The later stage of dementia | Alzheimer’s Societyhttps://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/symptoms-and-diagnosis/how-dementia-progresses/later-stages-dementia
Dementia is a life-limiting condition and there is information about later-stage dementia and life expectancy on this page. […] Whatever type of dementia a person has, their life expectancy is on average lower. This is why dementia is called a life-limiting condition. […] The later stage of dementia tends to be the shortest. On average it lasts about one to two years. […] A person with vascular dementia is at risk of dying at any stage of dementia, from one of these. […] The other way that dementia reduces life expectancy is through the effects of severe disease. […] This is why the later stage of dementia is often the shortest. […] The average life expectancy figures for the most common types of dementia are as follows: Vascular dementia around five years. This is lower than the average for Alzheimers mostly because someone with vascular dementia is more likely to die from a stroke or heart attack than from the dementia itself.
- #15 Prediction of clinical diagnosis of Alzheimerâs disease, vascular, mixed, and all-cause dementia by a polygenic risk score and APOE status in a community-based cohort prospectively followed over 17 years | Molecular Psychiatryhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-020-0764-y
The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of an AD polygenic risk score (PRS) and APOE status to predict clinical diagnosis of AD, vascular (VD), mixed (MD), and all-cause dementia in a community-based cohort prospectively followed over 17 years and secondarily across age, sex, and education strata. […] The PRS enriched the ability of APOE to discern AD with stronger associations than to VD, MD, or all-cause dementia in a prospective community-based cohort. […] The addition of the PRS to the base model of age sex and education (ASE) significantly improved AD prediction. […] Participants that were both PRS+ APOE4+ exhibited 4.6-fold greater odds of AD diagnosis within 17 years compared with participants who were both PRS and APOE4 negative. […] The PRS and APOE were predictive of VD.
- #16 Prediction of clinical diagnosis of Alzheimerâs disease, vascular, mixed, and all-cause dementia by a polygenic risk score and APOE status in a community-based cohort prospectively followed over 17 years | Molecular Psychiatryhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-020-0764-y
The PRS was not predictive of MD diagnosis; however, APOE4+ was predictive of MD diagnosis. […] PRS and APOE4 status were significantly predictive of all-cause dementia. […] A PRS encompassing additional genetic variants derived from the most current AD GWA meta-analysis enriched the ability of APOE status to discern AD in a prospective community-based cohort followed over 17 years that was independent of previous GWA meta-analyses. The PRS expressed a greater ability to predict AD than VD, MD, or all-cause dementia.
- #17 Potential Predictors for Cognitive Decline in Vascular Dementia: A Machine Learning Analysishttps://www.mdpi.com/2227-9717/10/10/2088
MMSE at recruitment, folate, MCV, PTH, creatinine, vitamin B12, TSH, and hemoglobin were the best predictive parameters individuated by the best ML model: Random Forest. […] The present study suggests that MMSE at recruitment, folate, MCV, PTH, creatinine, vitamin B12, TSH, and hemoglobin are potential predictors for cognitive decline in VD. […] Considering the most predictive biomarkers for the clinical evolution of VD, according to the results obtained by the best-performing model, MMSE at recruitment, folate, MCV, PTH, creatinine, vitamin B12, TSH, and hemoglobin were found to be the most predictive ones.
- #18 Machine learning models identify predictive features of patient mortality across dementia types | Communications Medicinehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-024-00437-7
Dementia care is challenging due to the divergent trajectories in disease progression and outcomes. Predictive models are needed to flag patients at risk of near-term mortality and identify factors contributing to mortality risk across different dementia types. […] Our models achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of over 0.82 utilizing nine parsimonious features for all 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year thresholds. […] Notably, stratified analyses revealed shared and distinct predictors of mortality across eight dementia types. […] This study demonstrates the feasibility of flagging dementia patients at risk of mortality for personalized clinical management. […] The ability of these models to identify dementia patients at a heightened risk of mortality could aid clinical practices, potentially allowing for earlier interventions and tailored treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes.
- #19 Machine learning models identify predictive features of patient mortality across dementia types | Communications Medicinehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-024-00437-7
Our models provide a robust method of flagging dementia patients at risk of near-term death, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of over 0.82 for all of 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year thresholds while utilizing a set of only nine features, most of which consist of dementia-related predictors as opposed to more general age-related risk factors. […] Overall, our models can be used both with a limited set of clinical features and in the presence of heterogeneous dementia patient populations, which can contribute to the precision care of dementia. […] The overall median survival time for Alzheimers disease was not reached, with 5- and 7-year survival rates of 76.05% and 66.63%, respectively. […] The overall median survival time in Lewy Body disease was 98.3 months (95% CI 84.2119.5), with 5- and 7-year survival rates of 60.0% and 52.0%, respectively.
- #20 Machine learning models identify predictive features of patient mortality across dementia types | Communications Medicinehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-024-00437-7
The overall median survival time in global CDR score at 0 was not reached, with 5- and 7-year survival rates of 93.7% and 90.1%, respectively. […] Our two-feature models, which utilized age and global CDR scores, achieved an AUC-ROC of over 0.76 at all four survival thresholds in the internal test set. […] Our multi-factorial models, for which we utilized SHAP to select a subset of nine features, achieved an AUC-ROC of over 0.82 at all four survival thresholds in the internal test set and comparable performance in the external test set. […] In predicting dementia patient mortality at the 5-year survival threshold, our dementia type-specific models all achieved an AUC-ROC of over 0.79 in the internal test set and similar performance in the external test set.
- #21 External Validation of the Charlson Comorbidity Index-based Model for Survival Prediction in Thai Patients Diagnosed with Dementia | BMC Geriatrics | Full Texthttps://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12877-024-05238-0
The CCI-based model exhibited fair discriminative ability and poor calibration for predicting survival in Thai patients diagnosed with dementia. […] Despite attempts at model updating, significant improvements were not achieved. Therefore, it is important to consider the incorporation of other influential prognostic factors. […] The CCI-based model showed poor predictive performance in Thai patients diagnosed with dementia. […] Although, there was no difference in discrimination performance between the original CCI and updated models. […] The use of a developed model may benefit when a prognosis needs to be determined in the ambulatory setting. However, it is important to note that other non-included factors influencing prognosis should also be taken into consideration.
- #22 Incidence and Prediction of Falls in Dementia: A Prospective Study in Older People | PLOS Onehttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0005521
Falls are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in dementia, but there have been no prospective studies of risk factors for falling specific to this patient population, and no successful falls intervention/prevention trials. […] In dementia, significant univariate predictors of sustaining at least one fall included diagnosis of Lewy body disorder (proportional hazard ratio (HR) adjusted for age and sex: 3.33, 2.115.26), and history of falls in the preceding 12 months (HR: 2.52, 1.524.17). […] The management of symptomatic orthostatic hypotension, autonomic symptoms and depression, and the encouragement of physical activity may provide the core elements for the most fruitful strategy to reduce falls in people with dementia. Randomised controlled trials to assess such a strategy are a priority.
- #23 Incidence and Prediction of Falls in Dementia: A Prospective Study in Older People | PLOS Onehttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0005521
It is estimated that by 2020 there will be 42 million people with a diagnosis of dementia worldwide, in whom the most common causes of dementia will be Alzheimer’s disease (AD), Vascular dementia (VAD) and the Lewy body dementias. […] People with dementia recover less well after a fall than those without dementia. […] The incidence of falls in dementia was 9118 per 1000 person years, which was significantly higher than in controls (1023; incidence density ratio (IDR) adjusted for age and sex: 7.58, 95% CI: 3.1118.5). […] The incidence of falls in PDD was higher than in AD (IDR: 10.5, 95% CI: 3.3233.1), VAD (IDR: 11.6, 95% CI: 5.7323.3), and DLB (IDR: 3.38, 95% CI: 2.664.31). […] Significant modifiable and non-modifiable predictors of falls in all participants with dementia are shown in table 3. Significant predictors included diagnosis of Lewy body disorder, history of falls or recurrent falls in the preceding 12 months, use of cardioactive medication, abnormal gait or balance score, Cornell depression score 10, autonomic symptom scale 7, autonomic neuropathy, symptomatic OH and time taken for blood pressure to return to baseline on standing. […] We suggest that interventions targeted towards these predictors could reduce the burden of falls related morbidity and mortality in community dwelling people with mild-moderate dementia.
- #24https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vascular-dementia/
Vascular dementia tends to get worse over time, although it’s sometimes possible to slow it down. […] Although treatment can help, vascular dementia can significantly shorten life expectancy. […] Vascular dementia will usually get worse over time. This can happen in sudden steps, with periods in between where the symptoms do not change much, but it’s difficult to predict when this will happen. […] But this is highly variable, and many people live for several years with the condition, or die from some other cause.
- #25 Long-term Prognosis for Vascular Dementia | Stanford Health Carehttps://stanfordhealthcare.org/medical-conditions/brain-and-nerves/vascular-dementia/long-term-prognosis.html
Vascular dementia is a progressive disease that has no cure. A person with vascular dementia will eventually need a high level of care as a result of the loss of mental abilities, as well as a decline in physical abilities. […] Long-term care facilities that specialize in the care of patients with dementias, Alzheimer’s disease, and other related conditions are often available once a person affected by vascular dementia can no longer be cared for at home.
- #26 The later stage of dementia | Alzheimer’s Societyhttps://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/symptoms-and-diagnosis/how-dementia-progresses/later-stages-dementia
Dementia is a life-limiting condition and there is information about later-stage dementia and life expectancy on this page. […] Whatever type of dementia a person has, their life expectancy is on average lower. This is why dementia is called a life-limiting condition. […] The later stage of dementia tends to be the shortest. On average it lasts about one to two years. […] A person with vascular dementia is at risk of dying at any stage of dementia, from one of these. […] The other way that dementia reduces life expectancy is through the effects of severe disease. […] This is why the later stage of dementia is often the shortest. […] The average life expectancy figures for the most common types of dementia are as follows: Vascular dementia around five years. This is lower than the average for Alzheimers mostly because someone with vascular dementia is more likely to die from a stroke or heart attack than from the dementia itself.
- #27 Prognosis of patients with dementia: results from a prospective nationwide registry linkage study in the Netherlandshttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4636675/
Dementia is a severe disease with often a poor prognosis. Mortality risks are estimated to be at least two times higher than mortality risks in non-demented patients. Furthermore, it is expected that dementia will be among the leading causes of death in the near future instead of cardiovascular diseases. Survival time, however, ranges considerably between patients and ultimately depends on underlying risk factors, including age, sex and comorbid conditions. […] The aim of this study was to report age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates of patients with dementia and its two most common subtypes, AD and VaD, in a large nationwide Dutch hospital-based cohort. […] The present study, using a nationwide cohort of 59201 patients with dementia, provides age-specific and sex-specific estimates on 1-year and 5-year risk of mortality. Men had an increased 1-year and 5-year risk of dying compared with women. Short-term mortality risks in patients visiting a day clinic were three to four times higher as compared with the general population. The risks among admitted patients even exceeded those observed in patients hospitalised with CVDs. AD and VaD had comparable mortality risks.
- #28 Prognosis of patients with dementia: results from a prospective nationwide registry linkage study in the Netherlandshttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4636675/
In conclusion, this nationwide study showed that dementia has a poor prognosis, even poorer than commonly thought. One-year mortality risks were three to four times higher in patients visiting a day clinic compared with the general population. Mortality risks of patients with dementia admitted to the hospital even exceeded those following CVDs.
- #29 Prognosis of patients with dementia: results from a prospective nationwide registry linkage study in the Netherlands | BMJ Openhttps://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/10/e008897
Dementia is a severe disease with often a poor prognosis. Mortality risks are estimated to be at least two times higher than mortality risks in non-demented patients. Furthermore, it is expected that dementia will be among the leading causes of death in the near future instead of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Survival time, however, ranges considerably between patients and ultimately depends on underlying risk factors, including age, sex and comorbid conditions. […] The aim of this study was to report age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates of patients with dementia and its two most common subtypes, AD and VaD, in a large nationwide Dutch hospital-based cohort. […] The present study, using a nationwide cohort of 59201 patients with dementia, provides age-specific and sex-specific estimates on 1-year and 5-year risk of mortality. Men had an increased 1-year and 5-year risk of dying compared with women. Short-term mortality risks in patients visiting a day clinic were three to four times higher as compared with the general population. The risks among admitted patients even exceeded those observed in patients hospitalised with CVDs. AD and VaD had comparable mortality risks.
- #30 Prognosis of patients with dementia: results from a prospective nationwide registry linkage study in the Netherlands | BMJ Openhttps://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/10/e008897
In conclusion, this nationwide study showed that dementia has a poor prognosis, even poorer than commonly thought. One-year mortality risks were three to four times higher in patients visiting a day clinic compared with the general population. Mortality risks of patients with dementia admitted to the hospital even exceeded those following CVDs.
- #31 Long-term Prognosis for Vascular Dementia | Stanford Health Carehttps://stanfordhealthcare.org/medical-conditions/brain-and-nerves/vascular-dementia/long-term-prognosis.html
Vascular dementia is a progressive disease that has no cure. A person with vascular dementia will eventually need a high level of care as a result of the loss of mental abilities, as well as a decline in physical abilities. […] Long-term care facilities that specialize in the care of patients with dementias, Alzheimer’s disease, and other related conditions are often available once a person affected by vascular dementia can no longer be cared for at home.
- #32 Time to nursing home admission and death in people with dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis | The BMJhttps://www.bmj.com/content/388/bmj-2024-080636
Median survival from diagnosis appeared to be strongly dependent on age, ranging from 8.9 years at mean age 60 for women to 2.2 years at mean age 85 for men. […] The average life expectancy of people with dementia at time of diagnosis ranged from 5.7 years at age 65 to 2.2 at age 85 in men and from 8.0 to 4.5, respectively, in women. […] About one third of remaining life expectancy was lived in nursing homes, with more than half of people moving to a nursing home within five years after a dementia diagnosis. […] Prognosis after a dementia diagnosis is highly dependent on personal and clinical characteristics, offering potential for individualised prognostic information and care planning.
- #33 Incidence and Prediction of Falls in Dementia: A Prospective Study in Older People | PLOS Onehttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0005521
Falls are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in dementia, but there have been no prospective studies of risk factors for falling specific to this patient population, and no successful falls intervention/prevention trials. […] In dementia, significant univariate predictors of sustaining at least one fall included diagnosis of Lewy body disorder (proportional hazard ratio (HR) adjusted for age and sex: 3.33, 2.115.26), and history of falls in the preceding 12 months (HR: 2.52, 1.524.17). […] The management of symptomatic orthostatic hypotension, autonomic symptoms and depression, and the encouragement of physical activity may provide the core elements for the most fruitful strategy to reduce falls in people with dementia. Randomised controlled trials to assess such a strategy are a priority.
- #34 Incidence and Prediction of Falls in Dementia: A Prospective Study in Older People | PLOS Onehttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0005521
It is estimated that by 2020 there will be 42 million people with a diagnosis of dementia worldwide, in whom the most common causes of dementia will be Alzheimer’s disease (AD), Vascular dementia (VAD) and the Lewy body dementias. […] People with dementia recover less well after a fall than those without dementia. […] The incidence of falls in dementia was 9118 per 1000 person years, which was significantly higher than in controls (1023; incidence density ratio (IDR) adjusted for age and sex: 7.58, 95% CI: 3.1118.5). […] The incidence of falls in PDD was higher than in AD (IDR: 10.5, 95% CI: 3.3233.1), VAD (IDR: 11.6, 95% CI: 5.7323.3), and DLB (IDR: 3.38, 95% CI: 2.664.31). […] Significant modifiable and non-modifiable predictors of falls in all participants with dementia are shown in table 3. Significant predictors included diagnosis of Lewy body disorder, history of falls or recurrent falls in the preceding 12 months, use of cardioactive medication, abnormal gait or balance score, Cornell depression score 10, autonomic symptom scale 7, autonomic neuropathy, symptomatic OH and time taken for blood pressure to return to baseline on standing. […] We suggest that interventions targeted towards these predictors could reduce the burden of falls related morbidity and mortality in community dwelling people with mild-moderate dementia.
- #35 Vascular Dementia Life Expectancy: Statistics and Disease Progressionhttps://resources.healthgrades.com/right-care/dementia/vascular-dementia-prognosis-and-life-expectancy
According to research, the average life expectancy for people with vascular dementia is less than 5 years from the time of diagnosis. However, everyone is different, and the disease may progress more slowly or quickly for some people. […] The average life expectancy after a vascular dementia diagnosis is: 4.4 years for females, 3.9 years for males. […] The bottom line is that the progression of vascular dementia is highly variable. It depends on personal factors, such as overall health and existing underlying conditions. This can make determining any one personâs expected progression or life expectancy difficult. […] There is no way to reverse vascular dementia. However, treatment may help slow its progression and increase life expectancy. […] The average life expectancy for people diagnosed with vascular dementia is usually less than 5 years. However, everyone is different. Some people may live longer while others may live for a shorter time.
- #36 Time to nursing home admission and death in people with dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis | The BMJhttps://www.bmj.com/content/388/bmj-2024-080636
Median survival from diagnosis appeared to be strongly dependent on age, ranging from 8.9 years at mean age 60 for women to 2.2 years at mean age 85 for men. […] The average life expectancy of people with dementia at time of diagnosis ranged from 5.7 years at age 65 to 2.2 at age 85 in men and from 8.0 to 4.5, respectively, in women. […] About one third of remaining life expectancy was lived in nursing homes, with more than half of people moving to a nursing home within five years after a dementia diagnosis. […] Prognosis after a dementia diagnosis is highly dependent on personal and clinical characteristics, offering potential for individualised prognostic information and care planning.