Nadciśnienie tętnicze
Rokowania, prognozy i postęp choroby

Nadciśnienie tętnicze jest kluczowym czynnikiem ryzyka chorób sercowo-naczyniowych, a jego wartości skurczowego ciśnienia tętniczego (SBP) powyżej 120 mmHg znacząco zwiększają ryzyko choroby niedokrwiennej serca (IHD) oraz innych powikłań, z ryzykiem względnym rosnącym do 4,48 przy SBP 165 mmHg. Kumulacyjne narażenie na podwyższone ciśnienie oraz różnice w pomiarach ciśnienia między ramionami ≥10 mmHg są istotnymi wskaźnikami prognostycznymi, wiążącymi się ze zwiększoną śmiertelnością całkowitą (HR 3,6; 95% CI 2,0-6,5). Zmienność ciśnienia tętniczego (BPV), zwłaszcza skurczowego w pierwszych 24 godzinach po udarze, jest silniejszym predyktorem niekorzystnego rokowania niż średnie wartości ciśnienia. Monitorowanie ambulatoryjne, zwłaszcza 24-godzinne i nocne pomiary ciśnienia, przewyższa pomiary gabinetowe pod względem wartości prognostycznej i poprawia stratyfikację ryzyka, umożliwiając wykrycie zamaskowanego nadciśnienia o wysokim ryzyku sercowo-naczyniowym.

Prognoza nadciśnienia tętniczego

Nadciśnienie tętnicze stanowi jedno z głównych globalnych wyzwań zdrowotnych, wiążąc się ze znacznym obciążeniem chorobowym i zwiększonym ryzykiem powikłań sercowo-naczyniowych. Dokładne prognozowanie przebiegu nadciśnienia tętniczego oraz ocena ryzyka wystąpienia niekorzystnych zdarzeń sercowo-naczyniowych stanowią kluczowy element opieki nad pacjentami z tą chorobą.12

Czynniki wpływające na prognozę

Podwyższone ciśnienie tętnicze krwi (BP) zostało zidentyfikowane jako niezależny czynnik ryzyka, który może przewidywać rokowanie i nawroty chorób sercowo-naczyniowych. Badania wskazują, że wyższe wartości ciśnienia tętniczego mają negatywny wpływ na objętość krwiaka, ciężkość stanu pacjenta, rokowanie funkcjonalne oraz śmiertelność w przypadkach ostrego krwotoku śródmózgowego.3

Kumulacyjne narażenie na podwyższone ciśnienie tętnicze (obliczane jako powierzchnia pod krzywą wartości ciśnienia w czasie) stanowi dodatkowy wskaźnik prognozowania ryzyka sercowo-naczyniowego. Im wyższe skumulowane ciśnienie tętnicze, tym wyższe ryzyko wystąpienia chorób układu krążenia, szczególnie u osób poniżej 60. roku życia.45

Interesującym wskaźnikiem prognostycznym jest różnica w pomiarach ciśnienia tętniczego między ramionami. Badania wykazały, że różnica w skurczowym ciśnieniu tętniczym między ramionami wynosząca 10 mmHg lub więcej, a także 15 mmHg lub więcej, wiązała się ze zwiększonym ryzykiem śmiertelności całkowitej (skorygowany współczynnik ryzyka 3,6, 95% przedział ufności 2,0 do 6,5 i 3,1, 1,6 do 6,0, odpowiednio). Różnice te mogą przewidywać zwiększone ryzyko zdarzeń sercowo-naczyniowych i śmiertelności całkowitej w ciągu 10 lat u osób z nadciśnieniem tętniczym.6

Nadciśnienie a ryzyko chorób układu krążenia

Wysokie skurczowe ciśnienie tętnicze (SBP) jest głównym czynnikiem ryzyka choroby niedokrwiennej serca (IHD), będącej wiodącą przyczyną zgonów na świecie. Analizy wykazały bardzo silny, znaczący szkodliwy wpływ podwyższonego SBP na ryzyko IHD, ze średnim ryzykiem względnym (w porównaniu do wartości 100 mmHg SBP) wynoszącym 1,39 (95% przedział niepewności 1,34-1,44) przy 120 mmHg, 1,81 (1,70-1,93) przy 130 mmHg i 4,48 (3,81-5,26) przy 165 mmHg. Ryzyko IHD wzrasta już przy wartości 120 mmHg SBP, rosnąc stabilnie do 165 mmHg, a następnie zwiększając się mniej gwałtownie.78

Warto również zwrócić uwagę na stan przednadciśnieniowy, który również podnosi ryzyko chorób układu krążenia (CVD). Metaanalizy wskazują, że stan przednadciśnieniowy zwiększa ryzyko CVD (RR = 1,55; 95% CI = 1,41 do 1,71), choroby wieńcowej (RR = 1,50; 95% CI = 1,30 do 1,74) oraz udaru mózgu (RR = 1,71; 95% CI = 1,55 do 1,89). Co istotne, nawet niski zakres stanu przednadciśnieniowego zwiększa ryzyko CVD w porównaniu do optymalnego ciśnienia tętniczego (RR = 1,46, 95% CI = 1,32 do 1,62), a ryzyko to dodatkowo rośnie przy wyższych wartościach stanu przednadciśnieniowego (RR = 1,80, 95% CI = 1,41 do 2,31).9

Zmienność ciśnienia tętniczego a prognozy

Nie tylko bezwzględne wartości ciśnienia tętniczego, ale również jego zmienność (BPV) ma istotne znaczenie prognostyczne. Badania wykazały, że wyższa zmienność skurczowego ciśnienia tętniczego w pierwszych 24 godzinach jest związana z niekorzystnym rokowaniem, szczególnie w przypadku pacjentów po udarze mózgu. W badaniach zmienność skurczowego ciśnienia tętniczego okazała się silniejszym predyktorem wyniku niż zmienność ciśnienia rozkurczowego.1011

Średnie absolutne wartości skurczowego ciśnienia tętniczego mogą nie różnić się między grupami o różnym rokowaniu, co dodatkowo podkreśla znaczenie zmienności ciśnienia tętniczego w zarządzaniu udarem zgodnie z rosnącą wiedzą w tej dziedzinie. Biorąc pod uwagę sprzeczne dane dotyczące optymalnego docelowego ciśnienia tętniczego, w ostatnich latach większą uwagę poświęca się zmienności ciśnienia, ponieważ utrzymane i ustabilizowane ciśnienie może poprawiać rokowanie.12

Modele predykcyjne w nadciśnieniu tętniczym

Znaczenie modeli predykcyjnych

Modele predykcyjne służące do przewidywania ryzyka rozwoju nadciśnienia tętniczego lub wzrostu ciśnienia tętniczego mogą być wykorzystywane do identyfikacji osób o wysokim ryzyku. Mogą one stanowić cenne narzędzie w praktyce medycznej ze względu na ich wartość w opiece nad pacjentami.1314

Większość opracowanych modeli ma na celu przewidywanie wystąpienia nadciśnienia tętniczego. Chociaż wielu autorów przeprowadziło walidację wewnętrzną (n = 29) swoich modeli, tylko siedmiu przeprowadziło walidację zewnętrzną. Model FHR (Framingham Heart Risk) został pierwotnie opracowany przy użyciu danych od głównie białych uczestników rekrutowanych w Framingham w stanie Massachusetts (USA).15

Badania walidacyjne modelu FHR były bezpośrednio porównywalne i wykazały jego zastosowanie w różnych populacjach. Jednakże wszystkie modele mają wysokie ryzyko błędu, głównie z powodu ograniczeń w analizach. Istniejące modele predykcyjne powinny być zewnętrznie walidowane w różnych populacjach i warunkach niż te z oryginalnego modelu.16

Metody uczenia maszynowego w prognozowaniu nadciśnienia

Metody uczenia maszynowego zyskują na znaczeniu w przewidywaniu wyników nadciśnienia tętniczego. Badania wykazują, że metoda XGBoostRFECV może skutecznie pomóc lekarzom w określeniu, czy u pacjentów z nadciśnieniem tętniczym wystąpią powikłania. Dokładność i wskaźnik AUC modelu predykcyjnego XGBoostRFECV wynoszą odpowiednio 94,36% i 0,927. Co istotne, metoda ta wymaga jedynie niewielkiej liczby wskaźników z badania fizykalnego, co skutecznie zmniejsza koszty i poprawia efektywność diagnostyki i leczenia.1718

W systematycznym przeglądzie i metaanalizie porównującej tradycyjne modele regresji i metody uczenia maszynowego w przewidywaniu nadciśnienia tętniczego, ogólny łączony wskaźnik C wynosił 0,75 [0,73-0,77] dla tradycyjnych modeli opartych na regresji i 0,76 [0,72-0,79] dla modeli opartych na uczeniu maszynowym. Ogólna dyskryminacja była podobna między modelami pochodzącymi z tradycyjnej analizy regresji i metod uczenia maszynowego.19

Siłą badań predykcyjnych jest koncentracja na danych nieinwazyjnych i eksploracja więcej niż jednego algorytmu do przewidywania nadciśnienia tętniczego. Przyszłe badania powinny uwzględniać poprawę dokładności predykcyjnej modeli poprzez zastosowanie algorytmów w większych populacjach ogólnych, aby uniknąć efektu zdrowej populacji.20

Znaczenie ambulatoryjnego i domowego monitorowania ciśnienia

W celu oceny, w jakim stopniu pomiary ciśnienia tętniczego poza gabinetem lekarskim przyczyniają się do stratyfikacji ryzyka i zarządzania nadciśnieniem tętniczym, międzynarodowe konsorcjum utworzyło International Databases on Ambulatory (IDACO) i Home (IDHOCO) Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome. Badania wykazały, że wśród różnych wskaźników ciśnienia tętniczego uzyskanych z pomiarów w gabinecie i ambulatoryjnych, najlepszymi predyktorami niekorzystnych wyników zdrowotnych były 24-godzinne i nocne poziomy ciśnienia tętniczego.21

Badanie IDACO potwierdziło wcześniejsze badania, wskazując, że monitorowanie ambulatoryjne ciśnienia tętniczego, wykraczające poza pomiary wykonywane w gabinetach lekarzy, poprawiło stratyfikację ryzyka wśród pacjentów z nadciśnieniem tętniczym lub podejrzewanych o nadciśnienie. Wzmocniło to przekonanie, że nocne pomiary ciśnienia tętniczego niosą cenne informacje prognostyczne.22

Zaobserwowano, że zamaskowane nadciśnienie niesie wysokie ryzyko sercowo-naczyniowe, co zostało potwierdzone w populacji Nigeryjczyków rasy czarnej przy użyciu domowego monitorowania ciśnienia tętniczego. Pełne znaczenie prognostyczne zamaskowanego nadciśnienia oceniono w badaniu porównującym częstość występowania i determinanty zamaskowanego nadciśnienia diagnozowanego za pomocą samodzielnie monitorowanego domowego ciśnienia tętniczego wśród 293 Nigeryjczyków z populacją referencyjną składającą się z 3615 uczestników IDHOCO o podobnym rozkładzie płci i wieku.2324

W młodym wieku bezwzględne ryzyko związane z ciśnieniem tętniczym poza gabinetem było niskie, ale ryzyko względne było wysokie, podczas gdy wraz z postępującym wiekiem ryzyko względne zmniejszało się, a ryzyko bezwzględne zwiększało.2526

Typ pomiaru ciśnienia Wartość prognostyczna Wpływ na stratyfikację ryzyka
24-godzinne monitorowanie ciśnienia Najwyższa wartość predykcyjna Znacząco poprawia ocenę ryzyka sercowo-naczyniowego
Nocne pomiary ciśnienia Wysoka wartość prognostyczna Niosą cenne informacje o ryzyku zdarzeń sercowo-naczyniowych
Pomiary w gabinecie lekarskim Umiarkowana wartość predykcyjna Przydatne, ale mniej precyzyjne w ocenie ryzyka długoterminowego
Domowe monitorowanie ciśnienia Dobra wartość prognostyczna Pozwala wykryć zamaskowane nadciśnienie o wysokim ryzyku sercowo-naczyniowym

Implikacje kliniczne i kierunki przyszłych badań

Badania podkreślają potrzebę priorytetowego traktowania i wzmocnienia strategii badań przesiewowych, aby zwiększyć świadomość potrzeby wczesnej diagnozy i leczenia nadciśnienia tętniczego oraz zwiększyć zasoby przeznaczone na zrozumienie pierwotnej prewencji podwyższonego ciśnienia tętniczego.27

Zrozumienie pełnego znaczenia prognostycznego zarówno bezwzględnych wartości ciśnienia tętniczego, jak i jego zmienności może prowadzić do bardziej ukierunkowanych interwencji terapeutycznych dla pacjentów z wyższym ryzykiem wystąpienia niekorzystnych wyników, co zmniejszy możliwość wystąpienia powikłań.28

Przyszłe badania powinny koncentrować się na poprawie modeli prognozowania ciśnienia tętniczego oraz na walidacji istniejących modeli w różnych populacjach. Potrzebne są modele z walidacją zewnętrzną i badaniami wpływu, aby wdrożyć model prognozowania w wytycznych praktyki klinicznej.29

Wczesna diagnoza i aktywne leczenie mogą znacząco poprawić rokowanie pacjentów z powikłaniami związanymi z nadciśnieniem tętniczym, kontrolować objawy niewydolności serca i znacznie poprawić jakość życia. Podkreśla to wagę zintegrowanego podejścia diagnostycznego, w szczególności wykorzystania obrazowania multimodalnego, w celu wczesnego wykrycia powikłań nadciśnienia tętniczego, takich jak amyloidoza serca związana z transtyretynową amyloidozą dziedziczną (hATTR-CA).30

Biorąc pod uwagę dowody wskazujące, że związek między skurczowym ciśnieniem tętniczym a chorobą niedokrwienną serca jest jedną z najszerzej badanych relacji między ryzykiem zdrowotnym a wynikiem, z istotnymi dowodami na przyczynowość, przyszłe badania powinny koncentrować się na opracowaniu bardziej precyzyjnych metod prognozowania i stratyfikacji ryzyka.31

Podsumowując, nasze obecne zrozumienie prognostyczne nadciśnienia tętniczego wskazuje, że zarówno wyższe ciśnienie tętnicze, jak i jego zmienność są niezależnie związane z gorszym rokowaniem i niższym wskaźnikiem przeżycia wśród pacjentów z powikłaniami sercowo-naczyniowymi, w tym z krwotokiem śródmózgowym. Wyniki te podkreślają znaczenie dokładnego monitorowania ciśnienia tętniczego i opracowania skutecznych strategii prewencyjnych i terapeutycznych.32

Kolejne rozdziały

Zapraszamy do dalszego czytania naszego leksykonu.

Wybierz kolejny rozdział z menu poniżej, aby otworzyć nową podstronę kompedium wiedzy i uzyskać szczegółowe informację o leku, substancji lub chorobie.

  1. 12.04.2026
  2. www.leksykon.com.pl

Materiały źródłowe

  • #1 Cumulative blood pressure predicts risk of cardiovascular outcomes in middle-aged and older population
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11899200/
    CVD continues to be a major worldwide health issue, accounting for considerable disease burden. […] Compelling evidence has demonstrated a correlation between elevated blood pressure (BP) and CVD outcomes. […] Recently, there has been a growing trend to use cumulative BP exposure as a supplementary index, calculating the area under the curve (mmHgyears) of numerous BP examinations. […] This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between long-term cumulative blood pressure exposure and the occurrence of composite CVD, heart disease and stroke in China. […] Our hypothesis is that higher cumulative BP (SBP, DBP, PP, MAP) exposure could be used to predict CVD risk in adults aged 45years or older in Chinese people. […] Long-term cSBP, cDBP and cMAP were associated with subsequent CVD and only found in people younger than 60years of age, whereas cPP was associated with stroke only across all ages.
  • #2 A Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Method for Hypertension Outcomes Based on Medical Data
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6963807/
    The outcomes of hypertension refer to the death or serious complications (such as myocardial infarction or stroke) that may occur in patients with hypertension. […] The outcomes of hypertension are very concerning for patients and doctors, and are ideally avoided. […] However, there is no satisfactory method for predicting the outcomes of hypertension. […] To achieve effective prevention, we must first effectively predict the outcomes. […] Only by effectively predicting the outcomes can doctors provide targeted treatment interventions for patients and control the patients condition, so as to effectively reduce the occurrence of outcomes that patients are most concerned about. […] Despite the enormous harm caused by hypertension outcomes, there are few studies on how to predict hypertension outcomes (death or complications).
  • #3 Association of severity and prognosis with elevated blood pressure and heart rate levels in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage | BMC Neurology | Full Text
    https://bmcneurol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12883-023-03409-x
    Elevated blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) have been identified as independent risk factors, with potential to predict prognosis and recurrence of cardiovascular diseases. […] Higher HR and BP levels, suggestive of an autonomic dysfunction, were independently associated with a poorer 1-year prognosis and reduced survival rate in ICH patients. […] The present study demonstrated that higher levels of blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) are independently associated with a poorer prognosis in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), especially among younger males. […] A Kaplan-Meier survival curve revealed that elevated BP and HR levels are also correlated with a decreased survival rate within a year following an ICH incident. […] Our findings indicate that both higher BP and HR have a negative impact on the volume of the hematoma, severity, functional prognosis, and mortality rate in acute ICH cases. […] Therefore, the pathogenesis and influences of BP and HR variations at the onset of ICH warrant further discussion. […] In summary, our study found that higher BP and HR levels are independently associated with a worse prognosis and lower survival rate among patients with ICH.
  • #4 Cumulative blood pressure predicts risk of cardiovascular outcomes in middle-aged and older population
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11899200/
    CVD continues to be a major worldwide health issue, accounting for considerable disease burden. […] Compelling evidence has demonstrated a correlation between elevated blood pressure (BP) and CVD outcomes. […] Recently, there has been a growing trend to use cumulative BP exposure as a supplementary index, calculating the area under the curve (mmHgyears) of numerous BP examinations. […] This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between long-term cumulative blood pressure exposure and the occurrence of composite CVD, heart disease and stroke in China. […] Our hypothesis is that higher cumulative BP (SBP, DBP, PP, MAP) exposure could be used to predict CVD risk in adults aged 45years or older in Chinese people. […] Long-term cSBP, cDBP and cMAP were associated with subsequent CVD and only found in people younger than 60years of age, whereas cPP was associated with stroke only across all ages.
  • #5 Cumulative blood pressure predicts risk of cardiovascular outcomes in middle-aged and older population
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11899200/
    Cumulative BP may provide a better prediction of cardiovascular outcomes compared with single BP measurement. […] Our findings suggest that the higher the cumulative blood pressure, the higher the risk of CVD. […] Thus, the cumulative BP load can be calculated from a series of BP measurements at different time points and considered in future CVD risk projections. […] The primary consequence of our discoveries is the potential advantage of extended blood pressure control among middle-aged and older persons. […] Our study revealed that long-term cSBP, cDBP and cMAP were associated with subsequent CVD, and this was only found in those under the age of 60, whereas cPP was associated with stroke only across all ages. […] The results of our study highlight the significance of considering cumulative BP level with high risk of CVD in the future.
  • #6 The difference in blood pressure readings between arms and survival: primary care cohort study | The BMJ
    https://www.bmj.com/content/344/bmj.e1327
    Objective To determine whether a difference in systolic blood pressure readings between arms can predict a reduced event free survival after 10 years. […] Results At recruitment 24% (55/230) of participants had a mean interarm difference in systolic blood pressure of 10 mm Hg or more and 9% (21/230) of 15 mm Hg or more; these differences were associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 3.6, 95% confidence interval 2.0 to 6.5 and 3.1, 1.6 to 6.0, respectively). […] Conclusions Differences in systolic blood pressure between arms can predict an increased risk of cardiovascular events and all cause mortality over 10 years in people with hypertension. […] An interarm difference in systolic blood pressure of 10 mm Hg or more or 15 mm Hg or more predicts reduced mortality and event free survival over 10 years in people with hypertension in primary care. This study supports the potential value of an interarm difference as a simple clinical indicator of increased cardiovascular risk.
  • #7 Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study | Nature Medicine
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01974-1
    High systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a major risk factor for ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death worldwide. […] We found a very strong, significant harmful effect of SBP on IHD, with a mean risk relative to that at 100mm Hg SBP of 1.39 (95% uncertainty interval including between-study heterogeneity 1.34-1.44) at 120mm Hg, 1.81 (1.70-1.93) at 130mm Hg and 4.48 (3.81-5.26) at 165mm Hg. […] Our analysis shows that IHD risk was already increasing at 120mm Hg SBP, rising steadily up to 165mm Hg and increasing less steeply above that point. […] Our study endorses the need to prioritize and strengthen strategies for screening, to raise awareness of the need for timely diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and to increase the resources allocated for understanding primordial prevention of elevated blood pressure.
  • #8 Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study | Nature Medicine
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01974-1
    The association between SBP and IHD is one of the most widely investigated health risk-outcome relationships, with substantial evidence for causation. […] Despite the extensive body of evidence indicating that elevated SBP is related to increased risk of IHD, several questions and methodological challenges remain unaddressed. […] Our results represent an updated systematic synthesis and meta-analysis of the available causal evidence from RCTs and cohort studies examining the effect of SBP on IHD, and show a significant and direct dose-response relationship between SBP levels and IHD risk across all SBP exposure values (100-200mm Hg), without evidence for a J-shape. […] Our findings suggest that IHD risk remains highest for individuals living with the highest SBP levels, providing evidence in support of public health and clinical interventions that will allow people to maintain SBP levels associated with low IHD risk throughout their lives. […] Overall, our findings call to the health community to prioritize the prevention and control of elevated SBP.
  • #9 Prehypertension and incidence of cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis | BMC Medicine | Full Text
    https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1741-7015-11-177
    Prehypertension elevated the risks of CVD (RR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.41 to 1.71); CHD (RR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.30 to 1.74); and stroke (RR = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.89). […] Prehypertension, even in the low range, elevates the risk of CVD after adjusting for multiple cardiovascular risk factors. […] In the subgroup analyses, prehypertension significantly predicted higher CVD risk across subgroups with analyses conducted according to participants age, gender, ethnicity, follow-up duration, participant number and study quality. Even low-range prehypertension increased the risk of CVD compared to optimal BP (RR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.62), and the risk further increased with high-range prehypertension (RR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.41 to 2.31). […] This meta-analysis found, after controlling for multiple cardiovascular risk factors, a robust and significant association between prehypertension and CVD incidence. The results were consistent across age, gender, trial characteristics, follow-up duration and ethnicity. More importantly, even low-range prehypertension increased the risk of CVD compared with optimal BP and the risk was higher with high-range prehypertension. […] Prehypertension, even at low levels, is associated with a high risk of CVD.
  • #10
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12028-022-01519-x
    Blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with outcome after endovascular thrombectomy in acute large vessel occlusion stroke. […] BPV only reached predictive significance when using successive variation extracted from downsampled (averaged over 5 min) SBP data (median 4.8 mm Hg [range 3.8-7.1]) in patients with favorable versus 7.1 mmHg [range 5.5-9.7] in those with unfavorable outcome, area under the curve=0.74 [confidence interval (CI) 0.57-0.85; p=0.031], or the power of midrange frequencies between 1/20 and 1/5 min [area under the curve=0.75 (CI 0.59-0.86), p=0.020]. […] Our results confirm previous reports that higher systolic BPV in the first 24 h is associated with unfavorable outcome. […] In our study, systolic BPV acted as a stronger predictor of outcome than diastolic BPV, in accordance with previous reports.
  • #11
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12028-022-01519-x
    SV reached predictive significance over the entire 24 h monitoring period if SBP recorded at 1 Hz was downsampled by averaging over 5-min intervals. […] Mean absolute SBP did not differ between outcome groups in our setting, thereby further emphasizing the importance of BPV in stroke management in line with growing knowledge. […] Given the conflicting data on the optimal BP target, in recent years, more focus has been put on BPV, as sustained and smoothened BP might enhance outcome. […] Our results show that the use of high-resolution BP data can lead to more predictive BPV indices. […] Further large-scale studies will be necessary to validate these results.
  • #12
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12028-022-01519-x
    SV reached predictive significance over the entire 24 h monitoring period if SBP recorded at 1 Hz was downsampled by averaging over 5-min intervals. […] Mean absolute SBP did not differ between outcome groups in our setting, thereby further emphasizing the importance of BPV in stroke management in line with growing knowledge. […] Given the conflicting data on the optimal BP target, in recent years, more focus has been put on BPV, as sustained and smoothened BP might enhance outcome. […] Our results show that the use of high-resolution BP data can lead to more predictive BPV indices. […] Further large-scale studies will be necessary to validate these results.
  • #13 Predicting the risk of incident hypertension and increase in blood pressure: A systematic review of existing prediction models for adults | medRxiv
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.14.23288537v1.full
    Models that can predict the risk of developing essential hypertension or increase in blood pressure (BP) can be used to identify high risk individuals. […] All current risk prediction models predicting hypertension or increased blood pressure have high ROB and most have not been externally validated. […] Our objective was to identify, summarize, and assess the ROB in published risk prediction models for incident hypertension or increase in BP, as well as any studies validating such models. […] Most models were developed with incident hypertension as the outcome. […] Most authors performed internal validation (n = 29) of their models but only seven conducted an external validation. […] The FHR model was originally developed using data from primarily White participants recruited in Framingham, Massachusetts (USA).
  • #14 Predicting hypertension using machine learning: Findings from Qatar Biobank Study | PLOS One
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240370
    Hypertension, a global burden, is associated with several risk factors and can be treated by lifestyle modifications and medications. Prediction and early diagnosis is important to prevent related health complications. The objective is to construct and compare predictive models to identify individuals at high risk of developing hypertension without the need of invasive clinical procedures. […] Predictive models are useful in predicting hypertension, being essential in medical practice because of their value in patients’ care. […] The objective of this study was to construct and compare logistic regression predictive models and decision tree techniques, using ML, to identify individuals at high risk of developing hypertension without the need of invasive clinical procedures. […] The algorithms may be used to make predictions of hypertension for a person using a new set of predictor values. Applying these values to the logistic regression model, for example, will produce a probability quantifying the likelihood that the person has a high risk of having hypertension.
  • #15 Predicting the risk of incident hypertension and increase in blood pressure: A systematic review of existing prediction models for adults | medRxiv
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.14.23288537v1.full
    Models that can predict the risk of developing essential hypertension or increase in blood pressure (BP) can be used to identify high risk individuals. […] All current risk prediction models predicting hypertension or increased blood pressure have high ROB and most have not been externally validated. […] Our objective was to identify, summarize, and assess the ROB in published risk prediction models for incident hypertension or increase in BP, as well as any studies validating such models. […] Most models were developed with incident hypertension as the outcome. […] Most authors performed internal validation (n = 29) of their models but only seven conducted an external validation. […] The FHR model was originally developed using data from primarily White participants recruited in Framingham, Massachusetts (USA).
  • #16 Predicting the risk of incident hypertension and increase in blood pressure: A systematic review of existing prediction models for adults | medRxiv
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.14.23288537v1.full
    The studies validating the FHR model were directly comparable and illustrated its applicability in different populations. […] All models have high ROB largely due to limitations in analyses. Existing prediction models should be externally validated in different populations and settings than the ones from the original model.
  • #17 A Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Method for Hypertension Outcomes Based on Medical Data
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6963807/
    The method proposed in this paper can effectively assist doctors to determine whether there will be outcomes in patients with hypertension. […] In this way, doctors can provide targeted interventions for patients with higher risk of outcomes and reduce the possibility of outcomes. […] The prediction model proposed in this paper requires only a small number of physical examination indicators. […] This will effectively reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment. […] Through the experiment, the accuracy and AUC of the XGBoostRFECV prediction model are 94.36% and 0.927, respectively. […] The optimal feature subsets selected by RFECV method under ACC, F1 measure and AUC are used for modeling. […] The results shown in the table are the average of the 10-fold cross-validation results.
  • #18 A Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Method for Hypertension Outcomes Based on Medical Data
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6963807/
    The best results for the XGBoost classifier. Its accuracy is 94.36%, F1 measure is 0.875, and AUC is 0.927. […] The method in this paper can automatically select the key factors that cause the outcomes of hypertension, thus reducing the complexity of the prediction method. […] The result of this paper is the successful application of machine learning methods in the medical field. […] It has important practical significance for the in-depth study of serious complications of hypertension.
  • #19 Prediction of hypertension using traditional regression and machine learning models: A systematic review and meta-analysis | PLOS One
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0266334
    We aimed to identify existing hypertension risk prediction models developed using traditional regression-based or machine learning approaches and compare their predictive performance. […] The overall pooled C-statistics was 0.75 [0.730.77] for the traditional regression-based models and 0.76 [0.720.79] for the machine learning-based models. […] We attempted to provide a comprehensive evaluation of hypertension risk prediction models. Many models with acceptable-to-good predictive performance were identified. […] Overall discrimination was similar between models derived from traditional regression analysis and machine learning methods. […] Only a few models were externally validated, and the risk of bias and applicability was a concern in many studies. […] The overall predictive performance of the traditional regression-based models was good but with high heterogeneity. […] The pooled C-statistic of the FHRS [22] model was 0.75 [0.680.80] with high heterogeneity in the discriminative performance of this model. […] Models with external validation and impact studies are required to implement a prediction model in a clinical practice guideline.
  • #20 Predicting hypertension using machine learning: Findings from Qatar Biobank Study | PLOS One
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240370
    This study provides a foundation for the prediction of hypertension depending on a number of risk factors. Most of the predictor variables used in this study were in line with other published data. […] The strength of this study is the focus on non-invasive data and exploring more than one algorithm to predict hypertension. […] Future research should consider improving the predictive accuracy of models by using the algorithms in larger general populations to avoid the healthy population effect.
  • #21 What did we learn from the International Databases on Ambulatory and Home Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome? | Hypertension Research
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41440-023-01191-4
    To assess in individual-person meta-analyses how out-of-office blood pressure (BP) contributes to risk stratification and the management of hypertension, an international consortium set up the International Databases on Ambulatory (IDACO) and Home (IDHOCO) Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome. […] Among various BP indexes derived from office and ambulatory BP recordings, the 24-h and nighttime BP level were the best predictors of adverse health outcomes. […] The observation that masked hypertension carries a high cardiovascular risk was replicated in Nigerian Blacks, using home BP monitoring. […] At young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office BP was low, but the relative risk was high, whereas with advancing age, the relative risk decreased and the absolute risk increased.
  • #22 What did we learn from the International Databases on Ambulatory and Home Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome? | Hypertension Research
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41440-023-01191-4
    In conclusion, IDACO/IDHOCO forcefully support the notion that the pressing need to curb the hypertension pandemic cannot be met without out-of-the-office BP monitoring. […] The IDACO study confirmed previous research, indicating that ambulatory BP monitoring over and beyond measures taken in clinicians offices improved risk stratification among patients with or those suspected of having hypertension. […] It strengthened the notion that nighttime BP measures carry valuable prognostic information. […] In conclusion, adverse health outcomes among adults were directly associated with out-of-office BP. At a young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office BP was low, but the relative risk was high, whereas with advancing age, the relative risk decreased and the absolute risk increased.
  • #23 What did we learn from the International Databases on Ambulatory and Home Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome? | Hypertension Research
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41440-023-01191-4
    To assess in individual-person meta-analyses how out-of-office blood pressure (BP) contributes to risk stratification and the management of hypertension, an international consortium set up the International Databases on Ambulatory (IDACO) and Home (IDHOCO) Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome. […] Among various BP indexes derived from office and ambulatory BP recordings, the 24-h and nighttime BP level were the best predictors of adverse health outcomes. […] The observation that masked hypertension carries a high cardiovascular risk was replicated in Nigerian Blacks, using home BP monitoring. […] At young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office BP was low, but the relative risk was high, whereas with advancing age, the relative risk decreased and the absolute risk increased.
  • #24 What did we learn from the International Databases on Ambulatory and Home Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome? | Hypertension Research
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41440-023-01191-4
    The full prognostic significance of masked hypertension was assessed in a study comparing the prevalence and determinants of masked hypertension diagnosed with self-monitored home BP among 293 Nigerians with a reference population consisting of 3615 IDHOCO participants with a similar sex and age distribution. […] Given the risk associated with masked hypertension, the results of the ANTIhypertensive treatment in MASKed hypertension for target organ protection (ANTI-MASK) trial are eagerly awaited.
  • #25 What did we learn from the International Databases on Ambulatory and Home Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome? | Hypertension Research
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41440-023-01191-4
    To assess in individual-person meta-analyses how out-of-office blood pressure (BP) contributes to risk stratification and the management of hypertension, an international consortium set up the International Databases on Ambulatory (IDACO) and Home (IDHOCO) Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome. […] Among various BP indexes derived from office and ambulatory BP recordings, the 24-h and nighttime BP level were the best predictors of adverse health outcomes. […] The observation that masked hypertension carries a high cardiovascular risk was replicated in Nigerian Blacks, using home BP monitoring. […] At young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office BP was low, but the relative risk was high, whereas with advancing age, the relative risk decreased and the absolute risk increased.
  • #26 What did we learn from the International Databases on Ambulatory and Home Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome? | Hypertension Research
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41440-023-01191-4
    In conclusion, IDACO/IDHOCO forcefully support the notion that the pressing need to curb the hypertension pandemic cannot be met without out-of-the-office BP monitoring. […] The IDACO study confirmed previous research, indicating that ambulatory BP monitoring over and beyond measures taken in clinicians offices improved risk stratification among patients with or those suspected of having hypertension. […] It strengthened the notion that nighttime BP measures carry valuable prognostic information. […] In conclusion, adverse health outcomes among adults were directly associated with out-of-office BP. At a young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office BP was low, but the relative risk was high, whereas with advancing age, the relative risk decreased and the absolute risk increased.
  • #27 Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study | Nature Medicine
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01974-1
    High systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a major risk factor for ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death worldwide. […] We found a very strong, significant harmful effect of SBP on IHD, with a mean risk relative to that at 100mm Hg SBP of 1.39 (95% uncertainty interval including between-study heterogeneity 1.34-1.44) at 120mm Hg, 1.81 (1.70-1.93) at 130mm Hg and 4.48 (3.81-5.26) at 165mm Hg. […] Our analysis shows that IHD risk was already increasing at 120mm Hg SBP, rising steadily up to 165mm Hg and increasing less steeply above that point. […] Our study endorses the need to prioritize and strengthen strategies for screening, to raise awareness of the need for timely diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and to increase the resources allocated for understanding primordial prevention of elevated blood pressure.
  • #28 A Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Method for Hypertension Outcomes Based on Medical Data
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6963807/
    The method proposed in this paper can effectively assist doctors to determine whether there will be outcomes in patients with hypertension. […] In this way, doctors can provide targeted interventions for patients with higher risk of outcomes and reduce the possibility of outcomes. […] The prediction model proposed in this paper requires only a small number of physical examination indicators. […] This will effectively reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment. […] Through the experiment, the accuracy and AUC of the XGBoostRFECV prediction model are 94.36% and 0.927, respectively. […] The optimal feature subsets selected by RFECV method under ACC, F1 measure and AUC are used for modeling. […] The results shown in the table are the average of the 10-fold cross-validation results.
  • #29 Prediction of hypertension using traditional regression and machine learning models: A systematic review and meta-analysis | PLOS One
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0266334
    We aimed to identify existing hypertension risk prediction models developed using traditional regression-based or machine learning approaches and compare their predictive performance. […] The overall pooled C-statistics was 0.75 [0.730.77] for the traditional regression-based models and 0.76 [0.720.79] for the machine learning-based models. […] We attempted to provide a comprehensive evaluation of hypertension risk prediction models. Many models with acceptable-to-good predictive performance were identified. […] Overall discrimination was similar between models derived from traditional regression analysis and machine learning methods. […] Only a few models were externally validated, and the risk of bias and applicability was a concern in many studies. […] The overall predictive performance of the traditional regression-based models was good but with high heterogeneity. […] The pooled C-statistic of the FHRS [22] model was 0.75 [0.680.80] with high heterogeneity in the discriminative performance of this model. […] Models with external validation and impact studies are required to implement a prediction model in a clinical practice guideline.
  • #30 Frontiers | Inherited transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis presenting with diastolic heart failure and gastrointestinal symptoms: a case report and literature review
    https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cardiovascular-medicine/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2025.1588291/full
    The prevalence of Inherited transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (hATTR-CA) is rising with an aging population and more mutation carriers. […] Patients are often diagnosed late, leading to refractory heart failure and a poor prognosis. […] With early diagnosis and active treatment, the patient’s prognosis improved, symptoms of heart failure were controlled, and quality of life significantly improved. […] This case emphasizes the importance of early diagnosis and accurate treatment of hATTR-CA, particularly the role of imaging in diagnosing myocardial infiltration. […] Timely identification of CA allows for effective treatment, improving prognosis. […] This case report underscores the importance of an integrated diagnostic approach, particularly the use of multimodal imaging, in the early identification of ATTR-type myocardial amyloidosis. By leveraging multidisciplinary collaboration and advanced diagnostic tools, timely recognition and appropriate treatment can be initiated, significantly improving the patient’s quality of life.
  • #31 Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study | Nature Medicine
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01974-1
    The association between SBP and IHD is one of the most widely investigated health risk-outcome relationships, with substantial evidence for causation. […] Despite the extensive body of evidence indicating that elevated SBP is related to increased risk of IHD, several questions and methodological challenges remain unaddressed. […] Our results represent an updated systematic synthesis and meta-analysis of the available causal evidence from RCTs and cohort studies examining the effect of SBP on IHD, and show a significant and direct dose-response relationship between SBP levels and IHD risk across all SBP exposure values (100-200mm Hg), without evidence for a J-shape. […] Our findings suggest that IHD risk remains highest for individuals living with the highest SBP levels, providing evidence in support of public health and clinical interventions that will allow people to maintain SBP levels associated with low IHD risk throughout their lives. […] Overall, our findings call to the health community to prioritize the prevention and control of elevated SBP.
  • #32 Association of severity and prognosis with elevated blood pressure and heart rate levels in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage | BMC Neurology | Full Text
    https://bmcneurol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12883-023-03409-x
    Elevated blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) have been identified as independent risk factors, with potential to predict prognosis and recurrence of cardiovascular diseases. […] Higher HR and BP levels, suggestive of an autonomic dysfunction, were independently associated with a poorer 1-year prognosis and reduced survival rate in ICH patients. […] The present study demonstrated that higher levels of blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) are independently associated with a poorer prognosis in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), especially among younger males. […] A Kaplan-Meier survival curve revealed that elevated BP and HR levels are also correlated with a decreased survival rate within a year following an ICH incident. […] Our findings indicate that both higher BP and HR have a negative impact on the volume of the hematoma, severity, functional prognosis, and mortality rate in acute ICH cases. […] Therefore, the pathogenesis and influences of BP and HR variations at the onset of ICH warrant further discussion. […] In summary, our study found that higher BP and HR levels are independently associated with a worse prognosis and lower survival rate among patients with ICH.