Materiały źródłowe

• #1 Norovirus infection – Diagnosis & treatment – Mayo Clinic

  https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/norovirus/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20355302

  Norovirus infection is usually diagnosed based on your symptoms, but noroviruses can be identified from a stool sample. […] Recovery generally depends on the health of your immune system. In most people, the illness usually resolves within a few days. […] Your health care provider might recommend over-the-counter anti-diarrheal medication and medication to reduce nausea.

• #2 Norovirus infection – Symptoms & causes – Mayo Clinic

  https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/norovirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20355296

  Norovirus infection can cause severe vomiting and diarrhea that start suddenly. […] Most people recover completely without treatment. However, for some people — especially young children, older adults and people with other medical conditions — vomiting and diarrhea can be severely dehydrating and require medical attention. […] For most people, norovirus infection usually clears up within a few days and isn’t life-threatening. But in some people — especially young children; older adults; and people with weakened immune systems or other medical conditions or who are pregnant — norovirus infection can be severe. Norovirus infection can cause severe dehydration and even death.

• #3 Norovirus infection – Diagnosis & treatment – Mayo Clinic

  https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/norovirus/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20355302

  Norovirus infection is usually diagnosed based on your symptoms, but noroviruses can be identified from a stool sample. […] Recovery generally depends on the health of your immune system. In most people, the illness usually resolves within a few days. […] Your health care provider might recommend over-the-counter anti-diarrheal medication and medication to reduce nausea.

• #4 Norovirus infection – Symptoms & causes – Mayo Clinic

  https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/norovirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20355296

  Norovirus infection can cause severe vomiting and diarrhea that start suddenly. […] Most people recover completely without treatment. However, for some people — especially young children, older adults and people with other medical conditions — vomiting and diarrhea can be severely dehydrating and require medical attention. […] For most people, norovirus infection usually clears up within a few days and isn’t life-threatening. But in some people — especially young children; older adults; and people with weakened immune systems or other medical conditions or who are pregnant — norovirus infection can be severe. Norovirus infection can cause severe dehydration and even death.

• #5 Norovirus infection – Symptoms & causes – Mayo Clinic

  https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/norovirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20355296

  Norovirus infection can cause severe vomiting and diarrhea that start suddenly. […] Most people recover completely without treatment. However, for some people — especially young children, older adults and people with other medical conditions — vomiting and diarrhea can be severely dehydrating and require medical attention. […] For most people, norovirus infection usually clears up within a few days and isn’t life-threatening. But in some people — especially young children; older adults; and people with weakened immune systems or other medical conditions or who are pregnant — norovirus infection can be severe. Norovirus infection can cause severe dehydration and even death.

• #6 Norovirus infection – Symptoms & causes – Mayo Clinic

  https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/norovirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20355296

  Norovirus infection can cause severe vomiting and diarrhea that start suddenly. […] Most people recover completely without treatment. However, for some people — especially young children, older adults and people with other medical conditions — vomiting and diarrhea can be severely dehydrating and require medical attention. […] For most people, norovirus infection usually clears up within a few days and isn’t life-threatening. But in some people — especially young children; older adults; and people with weakened immune systems or other medical conditions or who are pregnant — norovirus infection can be severe. Norovirus infection can cause severe dehydration and even death.

• #7 Norovirus infection – Symptoms & causes – Mayo Clinic

  https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/norovirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20355296

  Norovirus infection can cause severe vomiting and diarrhea that start suddenly. […] Most people recover completely without treatment. However, for some people — especially young children, older adults and people with other medical conditions — vomiting and diarrhea can be severely dehydrating and require medical attention. […] For most people, norovirus infection usually clears up within a few days and isn’t life-threatening. But in some people — especially young children; older adults; and people with weakened immune systems or other medical conditions or who are pregnant — norovirus infection can be severe. Norovirus infection can cause severe dehydration and even death.

• #8 Modelling Estimates of Norovirus Disease in Patients with Chronic Medical Conditions | PLOS One

  https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0158822

  Norovirus gastroenteritis leads to significantly higher rates of healthcare utilization in patients with a chronic medical condition compared to patients without any such condition. […] The total proportion of NGE hospitalizations across all age groups that occurred in the population with a chronic condition was 51.6%. […] Our study is the first to assess the burden of NGE in individuals with chronic medical conditions. NGE-attributable hospitalizations were substantially higher in patients with a chronic condition compared to the total population. […] The presence of a chronic pre-existing medical condition leads to higher rates of health care utilization due to NGE. A disproportionate segment (52%) of all norovirus hospitalizations occurred in the 37% of the population that had at least one chronic medical condition, who along with children under 5 and elderly adults, may merit special attention in NGE prevention strategies.

• #9 Modelling Estimates of Norovirus Disease in Patients with Chronic Medical Conditions | PLOS One

  https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0158822

  Norovirus gastroenteritis leads to significantly higher rates of healthcare utilization in patients with a chronic medical condition compared to patients without any such condition. […] The total proportion of NGE hospitalizations across all age groups that occurred in the population with a chronic condition was 51.6%. […] Our study is the first to assess the burden of NGE in individuals with chronic medical conditions. NGE-attributable hospitalizations were substantially higher in patients with a chronic condition compared to the total population. […] The presence of a chronic pre-existing medical condition leads to higher rates of health care utilization due to NGE. A disproportionate segment (52%) of all norovirus hospitalizations occurred in the 37% of the population that had at least one chronic medical condition, who along with children under 5 and elderly adults, may merit special attention in NGE prevention strategies.

• #10 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study | BMC Medicine | Full Text

  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #11 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8577179/

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #12 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study | BMC Medicine | Full Text

  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #13 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8577179/

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #14 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study | BMC Medicine | Full Text

  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #15 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8577179/

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #16 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study | BMC Medicine | Full Text

  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #17 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8577179/

  To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. […] We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year.

• #18 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study | BMC Medicine | Full Text

  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

  Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced. […] This modelling study suggests that norovirus incidence in the community is likely to remain approximately similar to or substantially increase beyond what has been experienced in years prior to 2020. The results are sensitive to future contact patterns in the community, and the adherence to preventive actions, which will affect the probability of transmission. The lower incidence of norovirus reported in surveillance aligns with model assumptions on reduced contact rates from March 2020 to June 2021 and is consistent with an increase in population susceptibility. The short- to long-term impact of this increased susceptibility places populations at risk of norovirus disease, but the scale of the impact remains to be seen. Continued investment to maintain robust national surveillance systems will remain critical to enable measures to limit the impact of these resurgences and provide essential information to public health bodies to support the implementation of preventive actions.

• #19 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8577179/

  Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced. […] This modelling study suggests that norovirus incidence in the community is likely to remain approximately similar to or substantially increase beyond what has been experienced in years prior to 2020. The results are sensitive to future contact patterns in the community, and the adherence to preventive actions, which will affect the probability of transmission. The lower incidence of norovirus reported in surveillance aligns with model assumptions on reduced contact rates from March 2020 to June 2021 and is consistent with an increase in population susceptibility. The short- to long-term impact of this increased susceptibility places populations at risk of norovirus disease, but the scale of the impact remains to be seen.

• #20 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study | BMC Medicine | Full Text

  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

  Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced. […] This modelling study suggests that norovirus incidence in the community is likely to remain approximately similar to or substantially increase beyond what has been experienced in years prior to 2020. The results are sensitive to future contact patterns in the community, and the adherence to preventive actions, which will affect the probability of transmission. The lower incidence of norovirus reported in surveillance aligns with model assumptions on reduced contact rates from March 2020 to June 2021 and is consistent with an increase in population susceptibility. The short- to long-term impact of this increased susceptibility places populations at risk of norovirus disease, but the scale of the impact remains to be seen. Continued investment to maintain robust national surveillance systems will remain critical to enable measures to limit the impact of these resurgences and provide essential information to public health bodies to support the implementation of preventive actions.

• #21 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8577179/

  Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced. […] This modelling study suggests that norovirus incidence in the community is likely to remain approximately similar to or substantially increase beyond what has been experienced in years prior to 2020. The results are sensitive to future contact patterns in the community, and the adherence to preventive actions, which will affect the probability of transmission. The lower incidence of norovirus reported in surveillance aligns with model assumptions on reduced contact rates from March 2020 to June 2021 and is consistent with an increase in population susceptibility. The short- to long-term impact of this increased susceptibility places populations at risk of norovirus disease, but the scale of the impact remains to be seen.

• #22 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  Predictions of confirmed norovirus infections can provide a timely indicator of current and near-future norovirus activity. […] Our study underscores the utility of applying statistical modelling and integrating externally sourced data into norovirus surveillance, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. […] By comparing three distinct statistical approaches, we demonstrated that each method outperformed the nave forecast, traditionally used in norovirus surveillance in England. […] The relative point-prediction improvement of our models reached 3045% compared to the nave forecast during the 2020/21 norovirus season which was impacted by the pandemic. […] However, we demonstrated that forecasting approaches explored in this study can improve the point-prediction between 7 and 22% on average across the 4-week forecasting horizons even before the pandemic.

• #23 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  Predictions of confirmed norovirus infections can provide a timely indicator of current and near-future norovirus activity. […] Our study underscores the utility of applying statistical modelling and integrating externally sourced data into norovirus surveillance, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. […] By comparing three distinct statistical approaches, we demonstrated that each method outperformed the nave forecast, traditionally used in norovirus surveillance in England. […] The relative point-prediction improvement of our models reached 3045% compared to the nave forecast during the 2020/21 norovirus season which was impacted by the pandemic. […] However, we demonstrated that forecasting approaches explored in this study can improve the point-prediction between 7 and 22% on average across the 4-week forecasting horizons even before the pandemic.

• #24 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  This suggests, that with norovirus laboratory reports returning to their previous seasonal pattern, statistical models from this study are likely to provide point-prediction improvement over the historical seasonal mean after the Covid-19 pandemic. […] The results focused on the first norovirus season following the Covid-19 pandemic indicate that the Count Time Series GLM approach provides the best performance when no external data is used. […] Its predictive scores were very similar to those from Regularized GLM incorporating air temperature, internet searches and mobility data. […] However, the Time Series GLM approach showed improved predictions when Community Mobility variables were included as covariates early in the pandemic. […] Further, our findings show that even the backfilled mobility data based on seasonal component improved predictive performance of GLM-based models during the pre-pandemic period when the real-time data was not available.

• #25 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  This suggests, that with norovirus laboratory reports returning to their previous seasonal pattern, statistical models from this study are likely to provide point-prediction improvement over the historical seasonal mean after the Covid-19 pandemic. […] The results focused on the first norovirus season following the Covid-19 pandemic indicate that the Count Time Series GLM approach provides the best performance when no external data is used. […] Its predictive scores were very similar to those from Regularized GLM incorporating air temperature, internet searches and mobility data. […] However, the Time Series GLM approach showed improved predictions when Community Mobility variables were included as covariates early in the pandemic. […] Further, our findings show that even the backfilled mobility data based on seasonal component improved predictive performance of GLM-based models during the pre-pandemic period when the real-time data was not available.

• #26 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  Quantile Regression Forest showed the poorest predictive performance for the period of early pandemic suggesting this approach is not sensitive to sudden changes in the data. […] Including mobility variables in QRF in the first norovirus season after the pandemic onset improved the forecasting scores and predicted the trend better than the other two approaches. […] In the period before the Covid-19 pandemic, Regularized GLM with Negative Binomial distribution showed the best predictive performance in terms of forecasting score and showed 35% improvement in the point-prediction when compared to the nave forecast (five-season mean). […] While the performance improved when we included the Google Trends variables as covariates, the improvement became incremental with inclusion of further variablesCentral England Temperature, seasonal component of Mobility data.

• #27 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  This suggests, that with norovirus laboratory reports returning to their previous seasonal pattern, statistical models from this study are likely to provide point-prediction improvement over the historical seasonal mean after the Covid-19 pandemic. […] The results focused on the first norovirus season following the Covid-19 pandemic indicate that the Count Time Series GLM approach provides the best performance when no external data is used. […] Its predictive scores were very similar to those from Regularized GLM incorporating air temperature, internet searches and mobility data. […] However, the Time Series GLM approach showed improved predictions when Community Mobility variables were included as covariates early in the pandemic. […] Further, our findings show that even the backfilled mobility data based on seasonal component improved predictive performance of GLM-based models during the pre-pandemic period when the real-time data was not available.

• #28 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  Conversely, trend prediction deteriorated when external data sources were incorporated. […] Therefore, it is important to consider the specific practical application of a forecasting model. […] Given the challenges of acquiring and selecting relevant Google Trends data, the effort required in some instances might outweigh the benefits for enhancing norovirus forecasting in England. […] The improvement in predictive performance through mobility data underlines the importance of societal, economic and cultural trends for predicting highly contagious pathogens. […] Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, norovirus laboratory reports decreased with reduced mobility, likely due to genuinely decreased transmission. […] As Covid-19 control measures were relaxed, exploratory analysis of the mobility data still suggests a shift in the visit frequencies to workplaces, groceries, pharmacies, etc.

• #29 Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance | Scientific Reports

  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48069-6

  In this manner, we can account for the disruption in norovirus activity during the pandemic while also addressing the absence of data after it became unavailable. […] Nonetheless, further research is needed to confirm the effectiveness of this approach. […] Finally, our research suggests that there is significant value for public health in considering the adoption of more sophisticated forecasting tools, moving beyond traditional nave methods, and utilizing available software to enhance the precision and timeliness of norovirus surveillance in England.

• #30 Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study | BMC Medicine | Full Text

  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

  Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced. […] This modelling study suggests that norovirus incidence in the community is likely to remain approximately similar to or substantially increase beyond what has been experienced in years prior to 2020. The results are sensitive to future contact patterns in the community, and the adherence to preventive actions, which will affect the probability of transmission. The lower incidence of norovirus reported in surveillance aligns with model assumptions on reduced contact rates from March 2020 to June 2021 and is consistent with an increase in population susceptibility. The short- to long-term impact of this increased susceptibility places populations at risk of norovirus disease, but the scale of the impact remains to be seen. Continued investment to maintain robust national surveillance systems will remain critical to enable measures to limit the impact of these resurgences and provide essential information to public health bodies to support the implementation of preventive actions.

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